Posted By: SteamyTeaYes there needs to be some sort of discounting, but not taking past performance into account will reduce the validity of any future predictions.

Well obviously predictions take historical rates into account but the point is that for predictive purposes the total number of past deaths is not relevant whilst the total number of future deaths is. Which is what FT was saying.

Posted By: djh
Well obviously predictions take historical rates into account but the point is that for predictive purposes the total number of past deaths is not relevant whilst the total number of future deaths is. Which is what FT was saying.

James Lovelock looks at this in his "The revenge of Gaia" book (not his choice of title!). In his figures the worst figure in terms of deaths per TW year is for hydro (and for hydro the deaths are almost entirely "public" rather than "workers")...

Like Madelein Albright US Ambassador to UN saying the civilian death toll in Iraq was 'worth it'.
Whereas the US public, a while after cheering on every new war, decides it didn't reckon on its own much smaller military bodycount and so washes hands of the chaos created.
But soon, drones, unmanned tanks and robot infantrymen will ensure no bodycount hence no future brake on US warfare.

Anyway, the news is that they Frenchies have just given the decision to go ahead.

Stop Hinkley Newsletter June 2016
Download full version here: http://stophinkley.org/NewsletterArchive.htm
EDF postpones Hinkley C decision until next year
A report in the Independent says that the EDF Board of Directors has agreed to undertake discussions with the company consultative council before taking a decision, a process which is likely to take a long time ie until next year.
Read More: http://realfeed-intariffs.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/edf-postpones-hinkley-c-decision-until.html
Independent piece; See http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/18bn-hinkley-point-nuclear-power-station-plan-could-be-coming-to-a-grinding-halt-a6997131.html
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The Plymouth Herald, April 25
Molly Scott-Cato, the Green Party MEP for the South West, said: "Waiting for Hinkley is a bit like waiting for a delayed train. Just as you think it might arrive, the time of arrival is put back again.
"Well this particular train has hit the buffers. In fact the project is completely derailed as EDF cannot build Hinkley without state aid. But getting the project back on track with government subsidy would breach EU state aid rules," said Dr Scott Cato, who has repeatedly attacked the project. "I expect this will be the last delay announcement and that the project will be shelved in September."
Read more: http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Hinkley-nuclear-power-station-hit-new-delay/story-29172447-detail/story.html#ixzz4A8rI6U3v
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Hinkley Point costs could rise to £21bn, EDF admits
The Telegraph, 12 May
The cost of the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant could reach almost £21bn, nearly £3bn more than planned, EDF has admitted, as it published a construction timetable suggesting first power could be delayed until 2026.
Read More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/12/hinkley-point-costs-could-rise-to-21bn-edf-admits/
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England couldn’t cope with a nuclear accident at Hinkley Point
The Spectator, 11 May
An EDF board meeting today could spell the end of the wretched Hinkley Point C nuclear power station and its hugely over-priced electricity. EDF’s finance director Thomas Piquemal resigned in March claiming that the project could put the entire future of the company at risk.
The UN’s Economic and Social Council has put its own boot into the project, saying that the UK has failed to consult with neighbouring countries over the risk of a nuclear accident. Read More: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/could-england-cope-after-a-nuclear-accident-at-hinkley-point/
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Hinkley Point C – A Tale of Nuclear Dreams!
Allan Jeffery, SH Assistant Co-ordinator
Some dreams come true; others turn into nightmares. Hinkley Point C nuclear power station has been a dream to many politicians, is it about to come true?
Read More: http://stophinkley.org/EngRevu/HinkCATaleofNuclearDreams!.pdf
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Stop Hinkley were invited to give an update on Hinkley C to the Mid Somerset CND and Peace Group following their AGM on 23rd May in Glastonbury.
Allan Jeffery gave a colourful power point presentation explaining all the problems we see to date causing the uncertainty of the build, acknowledged by many. The multitude of issues including constructional, technical, legal, political and financial of this most expensive building project in the world, were discussed at length.
The talk gave new angles on the current situation and the delivery gave humour and raised interesting questions and discussion afterwards.
Stop Hinkley is available to give presentations to interested groups. Contact admin@stophinkley.org or Allan Jeffery.
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A Modern Shakespearean Tragedy!
Allan Jeffery, SH Assistant Co-ordinator
The saga continues with yet another delay, as to when EDF will make a final investment decision, into the farce that is the Hinkley C, nuclear project. In this notable anniversary year how would the Bard have described what has happened?
Would he quote “Hinkley, Hinkley wherefore art thou Hinkley?”, or perhaps, “To C, or not to C: that is the question”.
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown rekindled the idea of this nuclear dream, is this now “Love’s Labour’s Lost”
The on-going constructional, technical, financial and legal problematic history, in the building of this EPR reactor in Finland and France, might be described as a “Comedy of errors”.
Vincent de Rivaz, the ‘second hand nuclear salesman’ for the French nuclear industry, continues to make optimistic predictions, the latest was, a decision by May, this now looks like a “Mid Summers Night’s Dream”, but “Alas poor Rivaz!” that seems to have been, “Much ado about nothing”. He might reply, “The course of true love never did run smooth!”
As I leave you with another line from the bard - “Delays have dangerous ends!” In September we could see EDF walking away from this financial doom laden project and the government adopting plan B, moving on to a sustainable energy future, based on the vast amounts of renewable energy available in the South West’ Perhaps then, “All’s Well that ends Well!”

Hinckley isn't about providing the most cost effective energy solution, its about providing weapons grade isotopes for the UK.

Posted By: bot de pailleHinckley isn't about providing the most cost effective energy solution, its about providing weapons grade isotopes for the UK.

Totally untrue, the UK has vast stockpiles of these isotopes that will allow more weapons to be make, then can every be required.

Your claim could have been made about the Magnox power stations, as the isotopes where wanted for weapons at the time they were built, but since then nuclear power in the UK have not been built to enable weapon production.

http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2016_07_11_closing_diablo_canyon_nuclear_plant_will_save_money_carbon

"... removing the inflexible “must-run” nuclear output, which can’t easily and economically ramp down much, will help integrate more renewable power reliably into the grid. Midday solar, rather than being increasingly crowded out by continued nuclear overgeneration, will be able to supply more energy. As Germany found, integrating varying solar and wind power with steady “baseload” plants can present challenges for the opposite of the reason originally supposed: not because wind and solar power vary (demand varies even less predictably), but because “baseload” plants are too inflexible."

Or a better way to look at it is to take the total build and running costs over the next 60 years and work out how much could be generated by other zero or low CO2e methods.

Letter to my MP:

Dear Mr Stride

I just sent a Constituent-customised email to you in the Greenpeace petition asking you to urge Philip Hammond to think twice before signing up for Hinkley. I understand why you probably can’t be reading all of such campaign deluges, so I’m emailing you direct, for once.

It’s lucky that Hinkley has been delayed long enough for the future energy terrain to suddenly become clear, for example
http://qz.com/737962/musks-master-plan-for-tesla-is-self-driving-cars-and-trucks-powered-by-the-sun
and much more than that - autonomous (off grid) electricity for households and businesses too.

This has been a techno-vision discussed for a long time but, much sooner than expected, here it is, already. Of course, scepticism and pitfalls – but the cat’s out of the bag and it’s sure to happen somehow.

In addition, http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-baseload-power-is-doomed

And energy prices are lower now than anyone could have imagined, and will continue a falling trend, ironically because, not in spite of, the end of fossil energy that’s in sight, as Saudi clearly understands.

Meanwhile, this Tory government is about to commit UK to paying £92.50 index linked per Hinkley MWh for the next 35yrs, while
energy market price continues to fall,
baseload power becomes more embarrassment than asset,
the grid’s share of power supply dwindles,
and total energy demand sets in and gains momentum, due to accelerating economy techniques in all sectors.

That subsidy total has already gone from £6.1bn to £29.7bn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/13/hinkley-point-subsidy-bill-quadruples-as-power-price-forecasts-f
and it would be foolish to believe it won’t go much much higher, especially in the light of the above trends.

This Tory government will be remembered as the one that placed an increasingly crippling millstone round UK’s neck.

Surely this government could find a way to renege now, in the nick of time, on this 22yr old obsolete Tony Blair megalomaniac scheme? Surely EdF would be greatly relieved to be slipped £1bn cash-in-hand to walk away?

I urge you to start working now to
a) stop Hinkley now before it becomes the new government’s biggest blunder
b) start a fresh visionary non-denialist energy strategy review that incorporates the revolutionary technological shifts of the last few months.

Best wishes

Tom Foster

If they handed out led light bulbs on a free one for one exchange with other types of lights and then banned the sale of any light that was not more efficient than the benchmark led light this would probably go a long way the negating the need for Hinkley C and I guess would be cheaper to boot !

Looks like there's a real sea-change, to highly distributed and localised, often autonomous generation,
with the grid playing a much smaller (and smarter) load-balancing role,
and big power stations only where necessary to serve big industrial users.

Energy prices continuing to fall because the marginal cost of distributed, renewable energy collection becomes near-zero -
but despite that disincentive, major demand reductions through energy-saving technologies finally overpower demand growth,
because the advantages of local/autonomy are only possible at much-lowered demand level.

Barrages and nukes become white elephants producing power way over market price.

Oh no. I was about two hours behind the news. There's a glimmer of hope it's going down the tubes.

When the EDF board itself only passed it by 10 votes to 7 and then one of their directors resigned in protest at the decision, you have to ask how confident are we that this is a good idea. And I am generally 'for' nuke power.

From BBC - wisdom from The Sun:

"The Sun says the "eleventh hour" intervention is no bad thing. Britain faces a struggle to keep the lights on, but Hinkley looks like "the most crazily expensive and least efficient solution". The FT points out that although successive governments have supported the scheme, Theresa May has never given it her personal backing."