I seem to remember that the argument was about long term competitiveness if we stayed out of the Euro Zone. So it could be argues that the were right.

There is also the point that if we had joined, as the worlds 4th largest economy at the time, the Euro Zone would have been very different than it is today.

In 1999 the UK GDP was $1,565,488,000, Germany was $2,202845,000. We had an economy 70% the size of Germany.
In 2015, the UK GDP was $2,849,345,000, Germany was $3,357,614,000, our economy was 84% the size of Germany.
Now some of this is down to a change in demographics, but you can see that by being in the EU trading block we have started to catch up with the size (churn really) of the German economy. If we had been in the Euro Zone we would have probably matched them by now.
But if you are happy to slip back to 1999 levels and say we were better off, then you are just plain wrong.

Ref:
http://countryeconomy.com/gdp

The thought that the UK (with or without Scotland who I am sure would want to leave the UK in the event of Brexit) can renegotiate favourable terms on the cherry picking of the various EU facilities after leaving I find laughable. If the UK wants access to the single market then its going to be on the EU terms. And it won't be free - ask Norway! If the UK wants a deal it will have to accept what The EU wants. If the UK wants to export to the EU then it will have to comply with the EU rules about products and labels, just like today and in addition be subject to import /export taxes.

I don't see benefits in the UK being such a problem, more a drum played by the Brexiters. OK the UK has benefits, over here state funded maternity leave is 70% of pay for 2 years and nursery school is from the age of 3. One of the people in my village has cancer, he is in hospital now getting a stem cell transplant. Hmmm, must be better in the UK as we are just a poor eastern block country.

Oh and Brits along with Germans and Austrians come here for dental treatment and the Germans and Austrians come here for spa treatment.

Migration - well there's a thing. Following an illness my mother (lives in UK) needed a live in carer. The family went to an agency and had 4 carers in 8 months - all the carers were from Africa ! We decided it was too expensive and so had to employ a carer direct. We advertised in the UK got one response, who did not turn up for the interview. We employed a carer from E. Europe, 2 years on we now have our 2nd carer from E. Europe. My wife went to an EU funded conference in Scotland, behind the bar was a Hungarian couple - their plan was to work for a couple of years to get a good deposit for a flat then go back buy a flat and start a family. All of these people, Africans and Europeans were in official jobs, paying NI and taxes and are not claiming any benefits. (2 of the Africans were sending money back to support families in Africa) TOTAL 8 MIGRANTS AND THEY ARE ALL DOING JOBS THAT BRITS DON'T WANT TO DO. If Brexit wins who is going to do the jobs that can't be filled today without migrants.

The refugee crisis in Europe (mainland) IMO is largely of Germanys making. Merkel had (has) the idea that the refugees can solve Germanys demographic problems. The UK does not want any part of it, but then neither does E. Europe either and Hungary won't be taking any from any sort of quota system. It is a problem but UK in or out won't make any difference to the eventual solution (Unless perhaps, if UK out then France will insist the UKs gate at Calais is moved back to Dover !!)

Don't forget the real reason for the referendum, IMO nothing to do with what is best for the UK and lots to do with Cameron trying to keep his parliamentary party together by handing out sops to the Euro-sceptics !!

Posted By: borpin

Posted By: Mike1Except that the pound has already dropped on the back of Brexit concerns, and chances are it would drop further if there's a Brexit vote

This irritates me as it simply is not true. The pound has not dropped simply because of BREXIT. Over the last 5 years the pound has seen a low of 1.1, a high of 1.44 and currently at 1.29. Last Nov it was at 1.4 and started to fall *before* the referendum was announced. If you look, it has actually been remarkably steady since the date was announced. In fact it is at the same level as on the 20th Feb. The movement of the pound is simply the Fear v Greed balance of the market traders.

The Bank of England doesn't see it that way. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, published 12th May, state that "While the impact of the referendum on some asset prices was not clear cut, there appeared to have been a more pronounced effect on sterling. Bank staff estimated that roughly half of the 9% fall in sterling since its November 2015 peak could be accounted for by risks associated with a vote to leave the European Union." http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2016/may.pdf

Actually - on the back of the latest polls suggesting that there won't be a Brexit - the pound has recently strengthened: http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/weekly-eu-referendum-news-tumbling-brexit-bets-send-pound-gbp-1-30-17761 (it keeps fluctuating in response to various polls and statements - as well as other economic factors, of course).

Also worth noting that the pound fell significantly on the prospects of a vote for Scottish independence:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonhartley/2014/09/03/pound-sterling-sell-off-ahead-of-scottish-independence-vote-mirrors-canadian-dollar-and-quebec-sovereignty-movement/#6879de936b25
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/10211/scottish-independence-pound-sterling-exchange-rates-fall-vs-euro-us-dollar-aus-cdn-nz-dollars.html

And that, should there be a Brexit vote, big falls are forecast, for example: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/3858-hsbc-and-ubs-forecast-parity-in-euro-to-pound And of course forecasts may not be correct, but it's likely to be in that direction.

Posted By: borpin

Posted By: Mike1And yes, our economy is bigger than Switzerland / Norway, so maybe we can do a better deal, but it's unlikely be open access for zero cost.

But is isn't about zero cost, it is about whether the economy would be better off, over all, in the *long* run. That is the key thing; *long run*.

It's partly about the long term - and who knows the answer - but we don't have a track record of performing German-style economic miracles, or of excelling at exports (at least, not since we dismantled the Empire and our ability to skew the trading arrangements in our favour, not to mention the loss of Sterling's status an international reserve currency). And I don't fancy waiting 15 or 20 years to see if we can buck history and do it this time around, hamstrung with the likely reduction in inward investment.

The other part is the damage that will be caused in the short and medium term, and virtually all the world's major economic forecasters consider that it will be significant. Of course you might have a high risk tolerance, but I don't fancy betting against that with my job, or the jobs of my friends and family. And I'd rather like the country to have some cash available to spend on the decarbonisation of the energy sector, and on the odd school or hospital too, after the hiatus since 2008.

Posted By: SteamyTeaThere is also the point that if we had joined, as the worlds 4th largest economy at the time, the Euro Zone would have been very different than it is today.

I'd like to think so - and had we been at the table I would like to think that we'd have insisted on keeping Greece (and others) firmly outside the eurozone it until they properly met the criteria.

...however, Gordon Brown was one of the finance ministers that let France and Germany break the (supposedly legally enforceable) Stability and Growth Pact without penalty, which in turn was a major factor leading to the euro crisis, so I maybe wrong on that one (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16761087).

Much here is said about the Euro - I am in favour of the Euro, but not as it has been managed up until now. As an economic tool it is (would be) good, but it is not managed like today. It is treated like a political tool and has been screwed up by the meddling of the politicians. Too many countries have been pushed into the Euro for political ends ignoring the economic pointers that said they weren't ready. And that IMO is the root cause of the Euro problems.

BTW I don't think that the effect on the UK, in or out of the EU will be any different if the Euro tanks.

Posted By: Peter_in_Hungaryif you want access to the single market then we (EU) want free movement.

Do you think that the UK government would have a mandate to negotiate free movement if there was a successful brexit vote based on a campaign where immigration control has been one of the major planks? I don't, so I think it's simply a question of whether there is in fact another way to negotiate access to the single market. If not then there are WTO rules or whatever arrangements we had pre-1979 as a starting point for negotiation. But a future where brexit wins and then gives away free movement is simply not credible to me.

Posted By: djhBut a future where brexit wins and then gives away free movement is simply not credible to me.

But a future where Brexit can negotiate on its own terms without the EU demanding what it wants take it or leave it is simply not credible to me.
And while we could operate on trade as with any other country we will loose a big advantage of the tremendous market on the doorstep and the UK would still have to comply with the product regulations demanded by the EU as today.

Posted By: Peter_in_HungaryBut a future where Brexit can negotiate on its own terms without the EU demanding what it wants take it or leave it is simply not credible to me.

Depends whether VW, Mercedes, Renault etc want to cede the UK market to the Japanese, Koreans etc. But I have no idea where the horse trading would finish up, so what you say may certainly turn out to be correct.

And while we could operate on trade as with any other country we will loose a big advantage of the tremendous market on the doorstep and the UK would still have to comply with the product regulations demanded by the EU as today.

Products for export to Europe would have to. Not everything.

Peter_in_Hungary

I don't see benefits in the UK being such a problem, more a drum played by the Brexiters. OK the UK has benefits, over here state funded maternity leave is 70% of pay for 2 years and nursery school is from the age of 3. One of the people in my village has cancer, he is in hospital now getting a stem cell transplant. Hmmm, must be better in the UK as we are just a poor eastern block country.

Oh and Brits along with Germans and Austrians come here for dental treatment and the Germans and Austrians come here for spa treatment.



Hmmm. Hardly surprising as Hungary is the second or third biggest net recipient of EU largesse. I don't think they pay anything for their seat at the table.
UK arguably the second biggest net contributor, perhaps we could have some of that spa treatment etc. on the NHS if we weren't supporting such things in Hungary.

Merkel and her misguided policy on immigration, has probably done more than anyone to act as a recruiting Sergeant for the far right throughout Europe.
My late wife was German, and I spent many years, on and off living there, I actually like the place.
However, in their short history since 1871 they've managed to start two bloody world wars, and now thrown a Continent into chaos over immigration. That's helluva freakin' track record and such a wonderful role model.

Here we are clamouring to stay in the club who's rule book was largely written by them, and with every new economically weak entry into that club their strength grows.
Lets say it's democracy, but not as we know it, Jim.

France does its bit to block things, too. E.g, the continuing Strasbourg nonsense is due to a veto on their part.

Many thousands of the direct employees of the EU are translators. It's well past time there was one official language. Germany's position is (or was - this is a few years old) quite reasonable, IMHO: they don't mind if it's English, they don't mind if it's French but if it's both English and French they want it to be German, too. I suggest a European-wide instant-runoff referendum but my guess would be that the French would block that, too, because they know English would likely win.

Still, Spanish wouldn't be a terrible choice as lots of South Americans speak it, lots of northern Europeans go to Spain each year and it'll be the second official language in the US pretty soon

Ed Davies
1 hour ago

France does its bit to block things, too. E.g, the continuing Strasbourg nonsense is due to a veto on their part.

Yes, and strange that the majority voting enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty and the abolition of many areas of veto, didn't extend to this part of EU legislation.

Posted By: owlmanthrown a Continent into chaos over immigration

Germany is the only country that knows it can't do a Canute, at least not for long.

Germany hasn't caused 'the immigration crisis' - it's 'The West's oil wars that have thrown the middle east into chaos, whether by stupidity or by geo-strategic design is debateable. If the latter, then the next step is to throw Europe into chaos too - and it looks like Europe is falling for it. Calling it 'immigration crisis' is incredible self-delusion - be real and human and call it 'refugee crisis'.

This 'immigration crisis' is as nothing compared to the coming-soon one caused by climate change caused by 'The West'.

Foster Tom: Germany wanted immigrants not refugees,...it's about demographics, and to feed the Wirtschaftswunder. They've done it before with Turkey in the 70s.

I agree it's a human tragedy, even for the estimated 50% plus of those arriving who technically, UN definition, are not refugees or asylum seekers, just someone looking for a better life, whatever the cause.
Please don't call, or allude to me, as inhuman, you don't even know me, and coming from you too, who used to espouse the gentlemanly conduct of this forum.

Simon Still: Your link makes interesting reading and the references are worthy of note, aren't they all essentially the Chaos Theory. There's one missing though, it's the one about population growth, which in my book is the trigger for much of the rest