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Politics: Feed in tariffs to be reduced by 87%

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    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeAug 31st 2015 edited
     
    The problem I have with some estimates of the subsidy for fossil fuels is that they include the social cost of particulate emissions and global warming. This is not helpful as a) many persist in not accepting these costs (particularly the second), b) those costs are not well understood and c) they're not likely to be linear with emissions so that aspect of the “subsidy” of any particular kWh is highly dependent on context of other generation.

    It might be more convincing to see an actual cash breakdown of the subsidies that all the generation industries (fossil, nuclear and renewable) actually receive so people can make up their own minds which they want to include.

    It's not easy, though. E.g., how much of the cost of military operations in the Middle East should be considered subsidy to the oil and gas industries? Most, I think, but others might differ.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeAug 31st 2015
     
    I'd agree with the comment about FITs simply lining the pockets of those with money - excessively so IMO. I really do not understand why export meters were not fitted with every PV install, then payments made on real export not theoretical export. No reason not to get paid for actually generating power, but that then is a return on investment.
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeAug 31st 2015 edited
     
    Posted By: borpinI really do not understand why export meters were not fitted with every PV install, then payments made on real export not theoretical export.

    Indeed. Adding an export meter need have added little to the cost of installs & should have been "part of the package" from the start, & not just because it removes the silliness if the "deemed 50% export" but also because without an export meter the householder looses the opportunity to monitor usage (unless they buy extra monitoring), i.e.

    usage = import + generation - export

    has 2 unknowns.

    The inability to monitor usage significantly damages the 'green' credentials of the system IMHO.

    For the first few years SSE were happy to fit an export meter free on request (a tick box on the FIT form - which we ticked), but they stopped presumably because they realised that no one else bothering (I know someone who was quoted for an export meter by another supplier. The quote had both an install cost and an annual fee, & just the annual part alone was for more than the value even 100% export would ever reach! It looked very much as though they didn't really want to offer the service, but felt obliged to quote).

    But I've said this all before...

    Edit: typo.
    • CommentAuthorTriassic
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    ted 2 days ago "The latest figure is that FiTs has added £9 a year to everyone's energy bills as of 2014."

    So bills will be going done by £9 then?
    • CommentAuthordb8000
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    Posted By: Triassicted 2 days ago "The latest figure is that FiTs has added £9 a year to everyone's energy bills as of 2014."

    So bills will be going done by £9 then?


    Whilst it might have been a rhetorical question, presumably the Government is continuing to pay under existing FiT agreements. The £9 will still be collected!
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    And it is index linked (part of it is), so will increase a bit with the September inflation figures.
  7.  
    Posted By: borpinI really do not understand why export meters were not fitted with every PV install

    ...(I forgot to add),

    So far as I'm aware the lack of mandatory export meters & the subsequent adoption of deemed 50% export was at the suggestion of the electricity industry? Something like they didn't want the bother and Smart Meters were just around the corner anyway?
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015 edited
     
    It'd be interesting to know the actual result of not fitting export meters.

    I actually suspect more than 50% of generated energy is exported across the UK. If you don't have a means to divert energy there's no way you'll use more than 50% of your panels' output. And immersion diverters et al don't seem to be that well known of, still.

    The big energy cos only worry about the aggregate result.
    • CommentAuthorowlman
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: gravelld</cite>It'd be interesting to know the actual result of not fitting export meters.
    I actually suspect more than 50% of generated energy is exported across the UK.

    I agree, my system's been in for 4 years and the various diverter devices were then in their infancy and also quite expensive, so I didn't bother. I'm quite happy for the extra I produce to go to grid.

    I can't understand why passive renewable generation would be reined back in favour of active renewable generation. I know of one FTSE renewables company that has already pulled out of the solar market.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    Most of the small RE companies around here pulled out of domestic solar a few years ago. There are still some that will do it, but it is really very secondary work for them.

    If you think about a normal house baseload, somewhere around 100W, during the winter not much PV is going to be exported.
    It is an interesting question all the same.
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    Maybe I'm guilty of only thinking of my situation with 4kWp but it's only on a bad winters day I would not be exporting. So you'd only have to be generating over 200W and you're above that 50% level. That's easy, unless really, really clouded over.
    • CommentAuthorbillt
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    How about yesterday.

    My 3.8kW system didn't start producing until after 10 and stopped at 7. Peak of 450W for 5 minutes at 17:00. Average 150W over the production period, 57W over the day, total 3.4kWhr. Wouldn't have exported a micro watt, and the 14th was even worse.

    Made up for it today 'though - 13kWhr.
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    Yesterday was really bad though. And so to will be Thursday. Hardly typical for August/September though.
  14.  
    Obviously it would be better to have used export metering, but I don't think in the scheme of things it makes a big difference. If I generate a kilowatt hour of electricity and consume it myself rather than importing from the grid, it is perceived by the grid to be the same as if I generate a kilowatt hour and export it. Either way the grid gains one kilowatt hour.

    Reality is a little complicated by immersion diverting to displace gas which isn't the best use of electricity environmentally or economically, but again I don't feel it's especially significant in the big scheme of things. On the other hand there are positive aspecsts that balance against that negative. Anecdotally at least domestic PV seems to make people more aware of energy usage and so reduce their consumption. Also by giving an incentive to self-consume the electricity it can act to reduce peak demand. For example someone with a dishwasher may run it during the day rather than the evening.

    Ed
    •  
      CommentAuthorted
    • CommentTimeSep 1st 2015
     
    The FiTs £9 (plus £? to account for 2015) on bills would be with us for the next 20 years even if FiTs ends in January for new systems.

    The original reason DECC gave for not mandating export meters was the (then) imminent roll-out of SmartMeters, that has since been the subject of ongoing delays. Whether there was lobbying from electricity suppliers, who realised that they could effectively profit from a deemed 50% export, is not public.

    The % of export vs self-consumption is directly germane to the current FiTs consultation as this governs the balancing amount that tops up the return (set at 4% IRR as the hurdle rate) from the FiT tariff. The IA for the consultation details the make-up for the 1.63p figure and it is reliant on an assumption that 53% of generation is exported. If this figure is wrong then the calculation for the 1.63p is wrong too.

    Under the proposed tariff of 1.63p, for an exemplar 3kWp system, 63% of the 'income' comes from avoided import due to self-consumption, 22% from payment for export and just 15% from the generation tariff.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeSep 5th 2015
     
    To put the cost per household of FiT into context:

    “Carbon Brief analysis suggests it could be anywhere between £4 and £17 per household per year for Hinkley C, under a range of plausible future wholesale electricity prices (see below for a note on the method used here).”

    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/09/new-nuclear-power-in-uk-would-be-the-worlds-most-costly-says-report
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 5th 2015
     
    Would that be the same Hinkley Point that EDF will probably pull out of due to lack of financing.

    In 2006 I met David Elliot, he was part of the team that did the consultation for then government. He said then that the original estimate of £3bn was too low, bet he never thought it would rise to £26bn.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeSep 7th 2015
     
    Posted By: atomicbisfObviously it would be better to have used export metering, but I don't think in the scheme of things it makes a big difference. If I generate a kilowatt hour of electricity and consume it myself rather than importing from the grid, it is perceived by the grid to be the same as if I generate a kilowatt hour and export it. Either way the grid gains one kilowatt hour.

    Reality is a little complicated by immersion diverting to displace gas which isn't the best use of electricity environmentally or economically, but again I don't feel it's especially significant in the big scheme of things. On the other hand there are positive aspecsts that balance against that negative. Anecdotally at least domestic PV seems to make people more aware of energy usage and so reduce their consumption. Also by giving an incentive to self-consume the electricity it can act to reduce peak demand. For example someone with a dishwasher may run it during the day rather than the evening.


    Not sure I agree totally. Diverting PV generation means you get paid for something (exporting) you do not actually do. If the grid has gained a kWh then that is one they did not pay to be generated and you did not pay to import, yet you are being paid to be profligate (using generated electricity just for the sake of it). However, you do have an investment to see a return on else you would not install it. The crux then, is to create a fair way, based on actual usage, export and generation, that incentivises the installation of PV in a fair way.

    The current system is an incentive to take the grid for a ride (get paid for export when in fact you do none).

    So firstly, there should be a payment for generating (everyone else gets this so seems fair).
    Secondly a payment for Exporting - again seems reasonable and potentially increases the amount exported.
    The final part of an individual's payment is the reduction in imported electricity. This then still encourages efficiency in the house.

    I follow someone who posts a graphic of current generation by type. Of course no one has any idea how much PV is actually being generated at any one time! National Grid may be able to estimate based on demand v cloud cover but it is still an estimate!
    • CommentAuthorjamesingram
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2015 edited
     
    A few figure on my systems 3 bed end of terrace utility house

    4kWp system fitted in 12/2011
    generated 15,633 kWh to date

    own export meter fitted 7/12
    exported 8,823 kWh to date
    imported 5,279 kWh since 7/12
    generated 13,434 kWh since 7/12

    Fitted immersion dump 2 years ago
    • CommentAuthorjamesingram
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2015 edited
     
    Ed , talking to someone re fossil fuel subsides the other day. They're much better informed than me
    They said it was mostly calculated from tax breaks given to the industry
    • CommentAuthorTriassic
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2015
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaIn 2006 I met David Elliot, he was part of the team that did the consultation for then government. He said then that the original estimate of £3bn was too low, bet he never thought it would rise to £26bn.


    I wonder how much alternative energy that could buy?
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2015
     
    Posted By: jamesingramA few figure on my systems 3 bed end of terrace utility house

    own export meter fitted 7/12
    exported 8,823 kWh to date
    Fitted immersion dump 2 years ago
    Is the exported figure despite diversion to immersion heater?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2015 edited
     
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: Triassic</cite>I wonder how much alternative energy that could buy?</blockquote>

    If it was solar at £1000/kWp, with a yield of 750 kWh/year and it is in operation for 20 years, then it is:
    £0.6/kWh

    If Nuclear can deliver at £10bn per GW (about what Hinkley will cost) and last for 60 years, then that is about 480,000 GWh in total, so £0.21/kWh. A third of the price of solar today.

    I think.
    • CommentAuthorDarylP
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2015
     
    ... does the above include predicted / proposed 'clean up' costs as well?:devil:
    • CommentAuthoratomicbisf
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2015
     
    Posted By: SteamyTea
    Posted By: TriassicI wonder how much alternative energy that could buy?


    If it was solar at £1000/kWp, with a yield of 750 kWh/year and it is in operation for 20 years, then it is:
    £0.6/kWh

    If Nuclear can deliver at £10bn per GW (about what Hinkley will cost) and last for 60 years, then that is about 480,000 GWh in total, so £0.21/kWh. A third of the price of solar today.

    I think.


    Don't you mean 6.66p/kWh for solar? 1000/(750 x 20)? £1000/kWp is low for domestic PV but certainly not unheard of... I have heard on various forums of the £4000/4kWp barrier being broken. On the other hand it would seem rather high for utility scale PV.

    I know France is planning for some of its nuclear plants to reach 60 years, but only after extensive (costly!) refurbishment so it seems a little unfair to calculate over 60 years. Also, there is the problem of money being valued more now than in the future. It's hard to balance £1 now against £1 in about 2085 (60 years from 2025, if Hinkley C is finished by then).

    Ed
  26.  
    borpin , yes
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2015 edited
     
    Posted By: atomicbisfDon't you mean 6.66p/kWh for solar?
    Yes, seem to have missed out a 0.

    As far as I know the costings for new nuclear have to include decommissioning.

    I think 60 years life is about right for nuclear.
    Solar could last longer, but much of the larger stuff only has planning for 20 years.
    The Nuclear should be £0.021/kWh, so the same difference.
    • CommentAuthorTriassic
    • CommentTimeSep 11th 2015
     
    So where next, now all the subsidies have gone?

    I live in a rural location, no mains gas and an old oil fired combi boiler in need of replacement, with a new self build in the planning and a blank piece of paper?
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeSep 11th 2015
     
    Posted By: TriassicI live in a rural location, no mains gas and an old oil fired combi boiler in need of replacement, with a new self build in the planning and a blank piece of paper?

    All we know for sure is that burning the paper is likely to be a bad idea ...

    I'll get my coat.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 11th 2015 edited
     
    :bigsmile:

    It is really just a case of sitting down and doing the figures.

    PV is cheap once fitted (little maintenance), the electricity can be used for many things and stored as thermal energy cheaply.
    A thermal boiler (wood, coal, bottled gas, oil, ST) needs annual maintenance and a reliable fuel supply. It is restricted in use, but some energy can still be stored thermally.
    Grid connection is cheap, reliable and almost unlimited at any time of day. What you run off it can be simple (a resistance heater) or complicated (a GSHP and multi-piped, stratified thermal store).

    What you will probably end up doing is looking at a combination of all of them.

    The big unknown is future costs of imported energy and reliability. So take some guesses (will imported domestic energy every be more than 10% of average wage, what will be the long term costs of timber).
    Always compare todays cash price with the best saving rates you can find today (Virgin are offering 2.06% for 2 years).
    So if you can save £1000 on the capital expenditure, will you spend more than £41.62 over the two years.

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