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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
Green Building Bible, fourth edition (both books)
These two books are the perfect starting place to help you get to grips with one of the most vitally important aspects of our society - our homes and living environment.

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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014 edited
     
    Posted By: SeretThis is what the Butterfly Effect is about, since a model can't simulate reality with full accuracy it'll eventually diverge.
    Don't think so - even with continuous (analogue) and completely accurate data, such as the actual process being studied 'experiences' internally, there is still divergence.

    That is the amazing revelation of chaos theory. The actual process, whether or not it's being studied, diverges. It's not just the (inadequate) model that diverges.

    But not randomly - although the timing, magnitude and direction of any divergence is completely unpredictable, there is precise pattern 'one level up', within the apparent 'chaos'. The universe is found to be not a clockwork, predictable mechanism, but continually, spontaneously and unpredictably setting off in new directions, hence enabling evolution at all levels.
    • CommentAuthorSeret
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    The Butterfly Effect is a woefully widely misunderstood idea. What it actually refers to is a model of an atmosphere that atomises the world down into (say) ten centimeter resolution, with things like pressure, windspeed, etc modelled at each point. Even if your initial capture of the data was perfect your ten centimeter resolution could miss a butterfly in Beijing, and when it flaps its wings it'll (slightly) affect the air pressure of the four data points around it. Then these affect the data points adjacent to them, and so on. The model will work fine for a while, but eventually the tiny error in initial conditions will force a major error.

    The Butterfly Effect is about the sensitivity of models to initial conditions. It's the reason why we can forecast the weather very accurately in the short term, but only in very vague terms over the long term. This is entirely due to the model being inadequate compared to reality. As all models are by definition. That doesn't mean that models can't be accurate enough to be useful. You just have to be aware of their limitations.
  1.  
    Hi Steamy,
    The Audi plant only uses renewables when in surplus. So this is energy that would otherwise not be used. The conversion efficiency would be about 70%. That is if none of the heat generated is recovered. Other plant in Germany operates when surplus is being generated and pumps gas into the gas supply system. So the plant would not operate 100% of the time. But I do not understand how/why the surplus must be generated quite often.

    Richard
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    Posted By: SeretThe Butterfly Effect is about the sensitivity of models to initial conditions
    Maybe that's what is understood by 'butterfly effect'. But that's not all there is to it - never mind models, much more significantly, look at the real thing:

    Chaos Theory is about the sensitivity of real-life systems to initial conditions.

    Except that in real-life systems, there's no such thing as 'initial conditions', except the series of things that the system did previously, and before that, and before that ...
    • CommentAuthorSeret
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014 edited
     
    Yes, but we're talking about models Tom, which is why I brought up the Butterfly Effect. The Butterfly Effect has no relevance outside discussion of models, despite people's constant attempts to shoehorn it into just about every subject from cheesemaking to metaphysics.

    The reason it came up is that (unless I've completely misunderstood you) you were earlier advocating for models without boundaries that attempted to simulate everything. My point is that models have inherent limitations and bounds, which you have to be aware of. As I said earlier, the job of a model isn't to uncover fundamental truths, it's to act as a temporary and limited tool to aid our decision making.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    Yeah but to guard against using inadequate data as an excuse to achieve comforting or self-deceiving results. Knowing where the data deficiencies are, you can estimate 'realistic' fudge factors to compensate, while acquiring better information. That's what IPCC is doing all the time. Why isn't an IPHS (Intergovernmental Panel on Human Sustainability) of equivalent status hard at work now?
    • CommentAuthorSeret
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    Well, perhaps you should write to your MP?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    Going to get into Lyapunov exponent and logistic maps soon. Scary stuff.:cool:
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeAug 27th 2014
     
    Posted By: Seretperhaps you should write to your MP?
    Why didn't I think of that?
    • CommentAuthorbxman
    • CommentTimeAug 28th 2014 edited
     
    The Audi e-gas plant will produce about 1,000 metric tons of e-gas per year, chemically binding some 2,800 metric tons of CO2. This roughly corresponds to the amount that a forest of over 220,000 beech trees absorbs in one year. Water and oxygen are the only by-products.

    Audi built the e-gas plant in collaboration with the plant construction specialist ETOGAS GmbH (formerly SolarFuel) and its project partner MT-BioMethan GmbH on a 4,100 m2 (44,132.03 sq ft) plot of land owned by EWE AG. Ground was broken in September 2012, and the topping-out ceremony was celebrated in December. The efficient use of energy flows is the top priority in the production sequence of the plant. The waste heat given off during methanation is used as process energy in the adjacent biogas plant, significantly increasing overall efficiency. In return, this plant supplies the highly concentrated CO2 required as a basic building block for the e-gas. This CO2 thus serves as a raw material and is not emitted to the atmosphere.


    It seems that there is also a project to utilize Microoganisms as well
    The e-gas project is part of Audi's comprehensive e-fuels strategy. In parallel with the e-gas plant in Werlte, Audi also operates a research facility in Hobbs, New Mexico, USA, for the production of e-ethanol and e-diesel in collaboration with Joule. At this facility, microorganisms use water (brackish, salt or wastewater) sunlight and carbon dioxide to produce high-purity fuels. The strategic goal of these projects is to use CO2 as a raw material for fuels and thus improve the overall footprint substantially. The e-fuels strategy is an important pillar of Audi's sustainability initiative.

    full article
    http://green.autoblog.com/2013/07/08/audi-opens-renewable-energy-e-gas-plant-in-germany/
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