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General: Pigs in pipes

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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 28th 2022 edited
     
    Not exactly green building but what the hell ... How were the Nordstream pipelinbes blown up, uundetected, and seeing they're made of steel 31-45mm thick and encased in reinf conc (who knew?). Pipelines send scraper 'pigs' along to keep it all clean. Easy to load one with explosives and stop it at just the right spot?
  2.  
    Unless someone can find the smoking gun the term plausible denial comes to mind.
    However since the pipeline is only about 100m deep investigation either by remote vehicles or specialised divers is perfectly feasible.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Did I make clear that the 'pig' is sent along inside the pipe?
  4.  
    If it was a pig,you would think it would be easy to tell by the way pipe has ruptured..
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022 edited
     
    Indeed - I'd a thought a rupture of such an armoured pipe would be easiest by an explosion within?
    https://www.corrosionpedia.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-pipeline-pigs/2/7397
  6.  
    Posted By: Peter_in_HungaryHowever since the pipeline is only about 100m deep investigation either by remote vehicles or specialised divers is perfectly feasible.

    Posted By: fostertomDid I make clear that the 'pig' is sent along inside the pipe?

    Yes but any investigation will have to be done from the outside.
    • CommentAuthorArtiglio
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    The reinforced concrete, is the weightcoat, to give the pipeline a decent amount of negative buoyancy. Whilst you could send a pig down it that’s rigged to blow the pipe up it’d be a complicated way to go about it, with lots of people involved. Much easier to place charges externally.
  8.  
    Given the current political tensions at the moment the Baltic is going to be (more) closely monitored at the moment. a surface vessel hovering over the pipe line to accurately place explosives is going to be noticed, similarly a submersible (submarine or ROV) will also be detected. sending a pig down the pipe is known tech and probably undetectable until the bang whereupon it is all in bits. Whilst I don't know anything about explosives I would expect it is easier to blow a pipe from the inside than from the outside. I don't suppose the number of people involved would differ much from either scenario.
  9.  
    Didn't Brosnan blow up a pipeline like that in a Bond movie?

    AIUI those pigs are driven along by the gas flowing along in the pipeline, but there has been no flow for a while? So maybe it was exploded by an armour piercing mine, laid from a ship or submarine, maybe positioned months or years ago. Who knows, and doubtful there will be much evidence surviving to be found, if any were needed.

    Maybe this is intended to demonstrate the vulnerability of other underwater pipelines to 'implausibly deniable' attacks, eg North Sea gas to UK or Europe, and so destabilise energy prices some more. Would also apply to electricity interconnectors. Bit like the Salisbury attack: supposed to frighten people by being eye-catching, obvious who can do it, but difficult to prove.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenAIUI those pigs are driven along by the gas flowing along in the pipeline, but there has been no flow for a while?
    That's usually the case - the first pigs were just straw bales - but there are also self-propelled inspection robots that can crawl along the pipes, so something like that could have taken some explosives. As you say though, explosives could also have been planted on the outside, either by divers or ROV. I believe they're waiting for the gas outflows to stop before they can send people or equipment down to inspect the damage, but they'll be lucky if they find any direct evidence of who caused it.
    • CommentAuthorArtiglio
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Djh, there will also be concerns of delta p hazards , without having control of any flow comtrol equipment associated with the pipeline , inspection will be limited to rov inspection. But its all a bit academic the pipeline is damaged, no real point in trying to determine if its repairable in the current russia / ukraine situation.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    I can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?
  14.  
    Can the pigs enter at different points or just from each end I wonder..
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Bit like rats in perforated land drains
  16.  
    Posted By: fostertomI can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?

    To generate more political instability, to create more uncertainty in the European energy market and to try to get some disunity amongst Ukrainians allies.
    Russia has a history (if the intelligence services are to be believed) of trying to destabilise western infrastructure typically with hacking.


    Posted By: chrisinbrightonCan the pigs enter at different points or just from each end I wonder..

    Pipe lines are built with access points along its run where pigs can be inserted
    • CommentAuthorbhommels
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Posted By: fostertomI can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?

    My guess this is a way of further pinching off the gas supply to Europe without violating the supply contracts that are in place.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Posted By: ArtiglioBut its all a bit academic the pipeline is damaged, no real point in trying to determine if its repairable in the current russia / ukraine situation.
    I think the main interest at the moment is to see if there's any evidence of what caused the leaks, both for apportioning blame and also to help prevent similar incidents in other pipelines. Whilst I'm sure the information gathered will be useful in the early stages of planning a repair I doubt that is the main focus for the reasons you state.

    For example, if it is determined that it was explosions and the explosions were inside the pipes, then that pretty much limits the perpetrators to Russia, or just possibly Germany. But for example there might be remnants of whatever carried the explosives to the sites that could be recovered and examined to determine their origin.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Posted By: bhommels
    Posted By: fostertomI can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?

    My guess this is a way of further pinching off the gas supply to Europe without violating the supply contracts that are in place.
    Indeed, and not only the supply contracts but the insurance ones as well I imagine.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Well it can only hasten Europe's permanent abandonment of Russian gas. In
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0356508862/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3J946R0HWOWRG&keywords=ministry+of+the+future&qid=1664446202&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjcyIiwicXNhIjoiMS40OCIsInFzcCI6IjEuNjIifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=ministry+of%2Caps%2C1018&sr=8-1
    it's never-traced environmentalists who steadily put the frighteners on all the villains of climate crime.
  21.  
    Posted By: bhommels
    Posted By: fostertomI can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?

    My guess this is a way of further pinching off the gas supply to Europe without violating the supply contracts that are in place.

    Do you really thing Russia is worried about a small thing about a sales contract after what it is doing in Ukraine. And who is going to sue them for 'Specific performance' and in what court.
    • CommentAuthorCliff Pope
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    What sort of action would be necessary to convince the west that running vulnerable supply pipes, cables, etc close to rogue states really might be a little bit silly?
  23.  
    By attacking in Swedish/Danish waters, I think they are signalling their ability to 'deniably' destroy anyone's pipeline anywhere.

    The Norwegian navy are apparently patrolling their pipelines that supply gas to UK and Europe, and I imagine the UK navy do the same with our North Sea pipelines, but there's 1000s of miles of pipeline and not many ships.

    I guess they are hoping to make us worry about having our gas cut off, that's the only benefit I see to them. The holes in their own pipeline are no loss to them as it wasn't going to be used anytime soon.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeSep 29th 2022
     
    Posted By: Peter_in_Hungary
    Posted By: bhommels
    Posted By: fostertomI can't understand why it wd be in Russia's interest?

    My guess this is a way of further pinching off the gas supply to Europe without violating the supply contracts that are in place.

    Do you really thing Russia is worried about a small thing about a sales contract after what it is doing in Ukraine. And who is going to sue them for 'Specific performance' and in what court.
    I think Russia is still worried about the thoughts of the court of world opinion. If they knowingly broke a contract then even their friends might worry about the strength of their own contracts. Plus I expect that eventually there'd be some kind of financial reckoning. I've no idea where or when.
  25.  
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/nord-stream-attacks-highlight-vulnerability-undersea-pipelines-west

    "Nato countries are scrambling to improve security of highly vulnerable undersea pipelines and communications cables"

    "For several years, Russian submarines have been spotted loitering near critical cables and pipelines on the seabed... it could also come from a trawler, which might have been at the location a month before any attack"
    • CommentAuthorowlman
    • CommentTimeSep 30th 2022
     
    Posted By: djh................................. Plus I expect that eventually there'd be some kind of financial reckoning. I've no idea where or when.




    Perhaps some of the frozen Russian money, (Some estimates put it as high as $1 trillion), may eventually be used as reparations for the re-building of Ukraine, plus monies owed to Western banks.
  27.  
    If you know which order the blasts occurred along the pipeline you will know which direction the pigs came from.

    The Ukrainian gas pipeline operators identified a pig being sent down the Ukranian pipeline about a month ago so dont be surprised if the Ukraine pipeline suffers the same fate.
    • CommentAuthorneelpeel
    • CommentTimeSep 30th 2022 edited
     
    I come back to the point about who's interests the pipeline rupture is in.

    I don't think it is in Russia's interest - they have their hands on the taps and can turn it on and off at will for political gain. I don't see why they would wish to lose that leverage. I also don't think they give a stuff about contracts and insurance policies.

    It is clearly not in the interests of Western Europe (esp Germany) as they would wish to keep their options open, even if they are trying to reduce reliance on Russian gas. And of course they also have the option to turn the taps on/off at the receiving end, assuming they have enough gas from other sources.

    It does help China and India as Russia is now more reliant on export to them - which in turn gives them political influence and probably also brings the gas cost down for them. They both have military subs.

    The US has not lost anything by the loss of the pipeline and it ensures that W.Europe don't quickly start accepting Russian gas again. They have military subs.

    Ukraine may gain from cutting off Russian supply, but face the danger of severely annoying their military donors. Not sure if they have the means either - explosive ROV?

    Dangerous game for whoever it is if they get caught out...which is entirely possible as these subs will no doubt be tracked and triangulated to try and determine where they are and when. Only Russia wouldn't give a stuff about getting caught as they would just deny all knowledge as they always do - 'we were just in the area to look at the magnificent geology, honest'.

    Interesting one.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 30th 2022
     
    So ... environmental activists? As I say above, read Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson.

    As Mark Rylance says in
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/sep/29/when-is-it-ok-to-start-blowing-things-up-mark-rylance-on-families-hilary-mantel-and-climate-disaster
    "It’s that kind of Nelson Mandela moment: when is it OK to start blowing things up? We’re at that crux, particularly with our governance being so pathetically influenced by corporate needs. What does it take?”
  30.  
    I'd expect that kind of loose talk from Trump or Putin but never from a contributor to GBF. Words have consequences.

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