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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
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    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJan 28th 2023
     
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJan 28th 2023 edited
     
    It's not just wind - there were stories of grid capacity problems with Solar nearly a decade ago - for example https://renewableenergyhub.co.uk/blog/is-the-national-grid-the-biggest-threat-to-renewable-energy/
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2023
     
    A relative is working on the Power Link from Inverness/Aberdeen area down to the Humber which should help the distribution.

    Scotland allowing on-shore wind is the key. However, if you are going to get paid even if you have to turn it off, why wouldn't you build it. Heads I win; Tails you lose.
    • CommentAuthorwholaa
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2023
     
    This problem will only get worse. When it is not windy in Scotland, it tends to be not windy in England or France either. The concept of diversification doesn't work here. Offshore helps and while it might be solution for the UK or NW European countries but there isn't enough off shore potential globally to solve this. Here in Ireland we specialised in on-shore wind and now we have one of the highest production of wind energy per capita in the world. Yet the carbon intensity of the system is still dreadful. Today, on a cool winter day,it is 298 g (gCOâ‚‚eq/kWh) compared to 116 g in the UK.
  1.  
    Calling this 'waste' is a bit simplistic. The whole point of wind power is that you build lots and lots and lots of it, so there's enough power even on not-very-windy days. Then, you can cheerfully curtail it, on other days when it's plenty windy enough.

    The fact that some parts of the UK are starting to reach that milestone point (albeit only on windy nights, so far) is a huge success, not a problem - we should be celebrating!


    We are going to see a lot more of this, as an enormous wave of windfarms (mostly in Scotland) and solar farms (mostly in England) are coming through development and will start production in coming years.

    As was mentioned, the subsidy arrangements and power market have not caught up yet, so we are still paying high prices and subsidies for power at times when it is not needed. There's a big market overhaul going on, think the consultation phase has closed.

    Another aspect is that wind developers (private companies) would love the transmission network (effectively publicly funded) to spend a lot of money on cables and storage, so that the wind developers can make more money, even while it's windy. When it's not windy, that public investment will just sit idle. There's a balance to be struck there. The ESO is being nationalised to make that balancing act more transparent and in the public interest.

    The alternative is that the private developers can stump up for more cables and storage themselves, to take advantage of the 'free' curtailed power. Starting to see that happening, eg cross-channel cables, and big batteries on the planned solar farms, and new pumped-storage. Arguably the subsidy that is withdrawn from Wind and PV could be redirected to storage projects and backup generators.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2023 edited
     
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/29/gas-fired-plants-uk-lights-on-cost-profits-energy-crisis

    "Ofgem will soon publish proposals designed to prevent backup generators from raking in “excessive” profits as part of their licence conditions. Supporters argue they are an essential rapid source of electricity supplies, and cannot be relied upon to produce reliable profits; detractors say they are owned by sophisticated traders maximising returns when the market is tight."

    "none of these profits have been subject to the windfall tax introduced by Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and expanded under Jeremy Hunt"
  2.  
    Don't think that's a very helpful article!

    The peaking plants have the same problem as the mooted interseasonal hydrogen storage plants. They will only run a few hours each year, and sit idle all the rest of the year. They don't know in advance how many hours they will run each year, could be none if it's a mild winter. When they do run, they have to charge a high price, to cover their whole year's costs. The price is set by auction, so if someone tried to charge too high a price, anyone else could under-bid them. But nobody has.

    Unsurprisingly, the big energy cos have moved away from that business (eg SSE haven't built their long-proposed interseasonal pumped-storage dam). That's only left high-risk financial traders involved, who can hedge their bets elsewhere, they are now responsible for keeping those old power stations going and our lights on! They don't have Ă‚ÂŁbns to build new interseasonal stores.

    The suggestion that we should encourage large mainstream suppliers back into this area, by hitting them with much higher taxes than other generators pay, seems a bit... odd!

    The change that is actually happening is that the backup generators are being offered a much lower fee, but paid every day, just to sit on standby, a capacity market. That way they have a more certain income, so attracting a more 'boring' kind of investor. This winter the mothballed coal units at Drax have been paid to sit on standby but haven't been used yet afaik.

    It's vital that the public get more informed about how their lights stay on in the winter. Echo-chamber articles like that one, are good for selling newspapers by playing to their readers' prejudices against rich foreigners owning power stations, but they really won't help with getting interseasonal storage built.



    Edit to add - the electricity price fell to Ă‚ÂŁ0 this afternoon, and the wind farms were curtailed, due to over capacity. If that keeps happening (hopefully it will!) then even the mainstream gas generators will be forced into the peaking power business model.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2023
     
    Posted By: wholaaThis problem will only get worse. When it is not windy in Scotland, it tends to be not windy in England or France either.
    Is that true? I understood that wind patterns were largely independent with a north-south separation of > 1000 miles?
    • CommentAuthorJonti
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2023
     
    Posted By: djh
    Posted By: wholaaThis problem will only get worse. When it is not windy in Scotland, it tends to be not windy in England or France either.
    Is that true? I understood that wind patterns were largely independent with a north-south separation of > 1000 miles?


    True. The other thing is that the problem highlighted here is one of power distribution not generation. One other possible solution would be for each area to be required to cover a majority of it's power requirements rather than expect other areas to have the infrastructure whilst enjoying the fruits of the project. Time for London and the SE to stop expecting the rest of the UK to keep paying for it :wink:
  3.  
    Been a while since I looked, but I had understood that it's complicated -

    Cornwall and Shetland are ~1000 miles apart N-S, they get storms and calms on roughly the same days/weeks because they are both part of the Atlantic gulfstream climate system.

    Surrey and Slovenia are ~1000 miles apart E-W, they get storms and calms on different days because the Alps are in the way and they are in different climate systems.

    However, Shetland, Cornwall, Surrey and Slovenia all need peak power at roughly the same time of year, so there is a limit how much they can back each other up. Unlike other continents where some regions need aircon in the summer and others need heating in the winter, so evening-out the demand.

    As the OP mentioned, moving electricity over those distances is possible but rather expensive at the GW scale. The wind resources available in Surrey are insufficient to be backup for those in Shetland.
  4.  
    Until battery storage is developed, this ia alwasy going to be the problem with Renewables like windfarms, and why fuel poverty will get worse.
  5.  
    https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/record_800mwh_of_utility_scale_storage_added_in_2022_according_to_solar_med

    Seems to be coming along steadily... 61.5GW of grid scale batteries at various stages of development.

    Though batteries are not interseasonal storage.

    Probably about the same GW of electric car batteries are parked outside people's houses.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2023
     
    Slight non sequitur but there's an interesting article about battery recycling at https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/17/1066915/tesla-former-cto-battery-recycling/
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2023
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenThe change that is actually happening is that the backup generators are being offered a much lower fee, but paid every day, just to sit on standby, a capacity market.
    Is this Diesel backup generators?

    I've wondered before if buildings that do have this sort of backup, can come on stream so they reduce the load on the grid. They are there anyway and it's good to run these things regularly, so might as well get paid for it.
  6.  
    Apparently the Capacity Market (backup generators) this winter are:

    Gas 3.3GW
    Coal 0.4GW
    Batteries 0.4GW
    Diesel+oil 0.1GW
    DSR* 0.5GW

    *DSR = demand side response = big consumers who agreed to have their supply cut back if needed to free up capacity

    So not many diesel generators, but maybe some are hidden under DSR.

    And separately, some zombie coal stations are being kept alive in case of urgent needs:

    https://www.drax.com/investors/six-month-extension-of-coal-operations-at-request-of-uk-government/
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeFeb 5th 2023
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenSo not many diesel generators, but maybe some are hidden under DSR.
    I wonder if it needs a different setup to run as backup; i.e. just feed grid rather than local building (on some circuits). If so, perhaps some incentive is needed there to modify the switchgear.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeFeb 5th 2023
     
    Posted By: borpin
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenSo not many diesel generators, but maybe some are hidden under DSR.
    I wonder if it needs a different setup to run as backup; i.e. just feed grid rather than local building (on some circuits). If so, perhaps some incentive is needed there to modify the switchgear.
    It will also need additional tankage if it is still to retain its ability to power the site for X hours in the event of a power failure. And of course the legal agreement to not island the supply.
  7.  
    The national grid have made a plan of all the new transmission cables they need to build, to connect up the next wave of wind farms around 2030.

    There's rather a lot of them.

    https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/the-pathway-2030-holistic-network-design/hnd
      Screenshot_20230205-233439_copy_687x1124.png
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeFeb 6th 2023
     
    What happened to the Cornwall 'wave hub' that SteamyTea was always on about 10yrs ago - built to serve expected generators in S Irish sea but never used (at that time)?
  8.  
    T'is better to have waved and lost, than never to have waved at all...
    The wave hub lost Ă‚ÂŁ42m and never caught any waves at all.

    https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/controversial-42m-wave-hub-sold-5433948
  9.  
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite><a href="https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/record_800mwh_of_utility_scale_storage_added_in_2022_according_to_solar_med" rel="nofollow">https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/record_800mwh_of_utility_scale_storage_added_in_2022_according_to_solar_med</a>

    Seems to be coming along steadily... 61.5GW of grid scale batteries at various stages of development.

    Though batteries are not interseasonal storage.

    Probably about the same GW of electric car batteries are parked outside people's houses.</blockquote>

    Doesn't need to be interseasonal. Just enough to cover periods without wind etc.
  10.  
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite>The national grid have made a plan of all the new transmission cables they need to build, to connect up the next wave of wind farms around 2030.

    There's rather a lot of them.

    <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/the-pathway-2030-holistic-network-design/hnd" rel="nofollow">https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/the-pathway-2030-holistic-network-design/hnd</a><div class="Attachments" id="Attachments_300140"><ul><div><img src="/newforum/extensions/InlineImages/image.php?AttachmentID=8463" alt="Screenshot_20230205-233439_copy_687x1124.png"></img></div></ul></div></blockquote>

    Has anyone done the numbers in terms of investment, turbine maintenance and replacement costs, transmission losses, backup energy requirements.
  11.  
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite><a href="https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/record_800mwh_of_utility_scale_storage_added_in_2022_according_to_solar_med" rel="nofollow">https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blogs/record_800mwh_of_utility_scale_storage_added_in_2022_according_to_solar_med</a>

    Seems to be coming along steadily... 61.5GW of grid scale batteries at various stages of development.

    Though batteries are not interseasonal storage.

    Probably about the same GW of electric car batteries are parked outside people's houses.</blockquote>

    The effect of all the new electric car/bike charging demand in the south of England and London on the grid must be phenomenal. Expecting intermittent renewable energy to fulfill the need seems strange.
    • CommentAuthorRobL
    • CommentTimeFeb 7th 2023
     
    Posted By: bot de paille

    The effect of all the new electric car/bike charging demand in the south of England and London on the grid must be phenomenal. Expecting intermittent renewable energy to fulfill the need seems strange.


    Electric cars are part of the solution, not the problem. Few owners are on a flat tariff and charge at a random time; most either have PV, or a smart meter with a TOU tariff, or both. The typical electric car now has sufficient range to last for weeks between charges for typical use - so it’s a perfect vehicle :wink: for demand management to fit in with renewables. I expect more and more sophisticated charging strategies will become available, and owners will be incentivised to use them. Octopus has quite a few different tariffs, some fixed time cheap slots, some where the price varies around, and particular matching chargers are needed.
    • CommentAuthorphiledge
    • CommentTimeFeb 7th 2023
     
    Posted By: RobL
    Electric cars are part of the solution, not the problem. Few owners are on a flat tariff and charge at a random time; most either have PV, or a smart meter with a TOU tariff, or both. The typical electric car now has sufficient range to last for weeks between charges for typical use - so it’s a perfect vehiclehttp:///newforum/extensions/Vanillacons/smilies/standard/wink.gif" alt=":wink:" title=":wink:" >for demand management to fit in with renewables. I expect more and more sophisticated charging strategies will become available, and owners will be incentivised to use them. Octopus has quite a few different tariffs, some fixed time cheap slots, some where the price varies around, and particular matching chargers are needed.


    Given that were already struggling to keep the lights on at peak times and we've got a seemingly massive additional energy demand yet to migrate onto the grid, I dont see individual use of EVs as a solution. As we electrify households and industry much of that will likely need to be off peak or track renewable generation. Having millions of EVs trying to do the same seems to just be adding to the enormous task we have ahead.
  12.  
    If there are to be 20 million EVs doing 8000 miles/year at 4 miles per kWh, then they will require ~40 TWh each year

    That's about 15% of UK's electricity supply of ~300 TWh each year.

    UK's consumption already swings by more than 15% each day, between night-time and teatime, and between summer and winter, the grid was specifically designed for bigger swings than that.


    So National Grid seem intensely relaxed about demand from EVs. They're more interested in the supply side, because wind and PV swing by far more than 15% each day.

    As Rob said, many people tend to move their EV charging to cheaper times, which actually helps the grid to stay balanced with more renewables. It's much easier to move EV charging than other loads like lighting, cooking, heating.

    Even better in future if we use EVs like home batteries, to charge up at cheap times and re-export at peak times (as Rob did).
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeFeb 8th 2023
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenEven better in future if we use EVs like home batteries, to charge up at cheap times and re-export at peak times (as Rob did).
    Seems to me that, get home of an evening, plug EV in. Export to Grid what is left in battery during the peak. When demand drops, charge up again. If there was a tariff that made that attractive, I'm sure folk would do so.
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeFeb 14th 2023
     
    I read somewhere that East Anglia (East England?) also has issues exporting all the power it generates.
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeFeb 14th 2023
     
    Posted By: CWattersI read somewhere that East Anglia (East England?) also has issues exporting all the power it generates.
    It will be generating more (i.e. receiving from offshore wind farms) in the future which is why national grid is proposing a new line of pylons through Norfolk and Suffolk. Much local objection as might be expected.
  13.  
    There have been a lot of local objections in Wales and Scotland to new wind farms (and their related power lines), mostly overruled in the interests of the nation and the environment, as is likely to happen in Suffolk.

    NG say that, as well as wind power, there'll be interconnectors from Belgium and NL coming ashore at Sizewell, and maybe a new nuclear station there, and probably a bunch of solar farms.

    All that power has to get to customers somehow, so as well as the new onshore pylons, there's also going to be an underwater cable from Sizewell feeding into the north Kent lines into London.

    Similar things are happening eastwards from Inverness, to Peterhead which is becoming a transmission hub.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/21041341.super-pylon-plan-emerges-run-100-miles-scots-countryside/
   
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