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Politics: EU:- in or out?

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    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: ferdinand2000</cite><blockquote><cite>Posted By: marktime</cite>

    Aside from the argument, and tracing your links, Denmark seems to have the largest fishing quota in Europe under the CFP.

    http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/factcheck-the-eus-impact-on-uk-fisheries

    Can anyone explain why?

    Ferdinand</blockquote>

    Its a throw back to the days when Greenland was part of Denmark.
  2.  
    Just had a frustrating conversation with some clients. Voted out, have holiday house in Italy, he worked for HSBC until recently. They said that Cameron is (was!) good and had done a great job for UK, that their grandchild couldn't get into the local a school and they have to wait a long time to get an appointment at a GPs both because there are too many foreigners around, said this was also a protest vote. I pointed out that he was mad to think that leaving the EU would change how many foreigners were already there and they said they were beginning to realise that, I pointed out that a huge number of grand children would find the lack of freedom to move around the EU a limiting factor in the future and they agreed that they hadn't thought of that, I mentioned the economic repercussions esp to bank stocks and they weren't actually aware of the various changes that had already taken place, but they did concede that they had already considered that perhaps they had made a mistake. Dickheads.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: TriassicBut will any of this make my self build any cheaper ?

    The fall in the pound will make imported plant and materials (or those containing imported components or materials) more expensive, and rising fuel prices will increase transport costs. Without free movement or an immigration policy that allows in similar numbers of operatives, there will be a shortage of labour, so labour rates will increase.

    As for the cost of land, that will follow whatever happens to house prices. That's harder to predict as it's driven on the demand side by factors like consumer confidence and mortgage rates, and on the supply side by the willingness and ability of the housebuilding sector to build more houses (linked to labour shortages, the cost of finance and other factors) - some of which are likely to be pulling in different directions. And I guess there's a small possibility that the Government could put up stamp duty to compensate for a reduced tax take elsewhere in the economy.

    So if you've already bought your land it will make your build more expensive; if not, then it could go either way.
  4.  
    @Triassic

    I think Mike has that about right.

    There has been a change in the pound, which may or may not significantly reverse, depending on events. But there is at least a 2-3 year negotiating period before any rules will change.

    Yes, Labour rates may increase.

    I am not sure about housebuilders; output has increased significantly over a few years, and since they work years ahead the short term effects should not be huge. They are still cautious in eg how quickly they build out projects; they seek to minimise unsold stock.

    London may be different, but that imo will be driven more by Mr Osbornes CGT/incmoe tax etc changes for landlords, and the huge boosts in Stamp Duty for larger and foreign owned property. 10-20% falls in London prices would not surprise me, which would unwind about 3-4 years of capital gains.

    London has a lot of rental property, and the number of rental households in London reduced by 100k in the year to spring 2016 iirc.

    I don't see Stamp Duty increasing further.

    Ferdinand
  5.  
    Posted By: renewablejohn
    Posted By: ferdinand2000
    Posted By: marktime

    Aside from the argument, and tracing your links, Denmark seems to have the largest fishing quota in Europe under the CFP.

    http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/factcheck-the-eus-impact-on-uk-fisheries" rel="nofollow" class="seoquake-nofollow" >http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/factcheck-the-eus-impact-on-uk-fisheries

    Can anyone explain why?

    Ferdinand


    Its a throw back to the days when Greenland was part of Denmark.


    I did wonder.

    Greenland left the EEC thirty years ago in 1985; so much for the capacity of the EU to adjust to changes in circumstances :-), if that is the case.

    The process took 3 years from referendum to withdrawal.

    Ferdinand
  6.  
    @Steamytea

    $2tn is about $4000/person.
    Sounds a lot, but it isn't really as it is not profit, or even added value.


    I make it $8000/person plus perhaps another 50% where FTAs *do* exist, but that's no really relevant to my point.

    I am arguing against Chicken-Licken arguments about a there being an existential catastrophe just because FTAs don't exist. This claim is untrue.

    Ferdinand
  7.  
    We might be grateful to Denmark and Greenland for showing us an alternative exit route for England and Wales rather than Article 50 which if invoked will be an absolute disaster not only for the UK but also for the Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Greenland exited long before Article 50 was written. The Lord's committee on the exit process came to the conclusion that Article 50 was the only route available.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf

    “9. Within the wider debate on EU membership it has been suggested that the
    UK could withdraw from the EU without reference to Article 50, for example
    by repealing the European Communities Act 1972, which gives domestic
    effect to EU law. We asked our witnesses whether this would be possible.
    Both told us that Article 50 provided the only means of withdrawing from
    the EU consistent with the UK’s obligations under international law. ⁸ A
    Member State could not fall back on the Vienna Convention on the Law
    of Treaties to avoid the withdrawal procedures in Article 50, because the
    Vienna Convention had to be read in the light of the specific procedures for
    treaty change laid down in the EU Treaties.”

    Greenland is interesting, though, because it devolved from Denmark (AIUI, more than Scotland, less than Canada) but continued EEC membership until it chose to leave.
  9.  
    Posted By: Ed DaviesGreenland exited long before Article 50 was written. The Lord's committee on the exit process came to the conclusion that Article 50 was the only route available.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf" rel="nofollow" >http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf

    “9. Within the wider debate on EU membership it has been suggested that the
    UK could withdraw from the EU without reference to Article 50, for example
    by repealing the European Communities Act 1972, which gives domestic
    effect to EU law. We asked our witnesses whether this would be possible.
    Both told us that Article 50 provided the only means of withdrawing from
    the EU consistent with the UK’s obligations under international law. ⁸ A
    Member State could not fall back on the Vienna Convention on the Law
    of Treaties to avoid the withdrawal procedures in Article 50, because the
    Vienna Convention had to be read in the light of the specific procedures for
    treaty change laid down in the EU Treaties.”

    Greenland is interesting, though, because it devolved from Denmark (AIUI, more than Scotland, less than Canada) but continued EEC membership until it chose to leave.


    The Lords only considered the complete exit of the UK from the EU this is not what we are now talking about. What the nation has voted for is for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to remain in the EU with England and Wales voting to leave. This can be achieved by a simple annex of England and Wales from the UK membership of the EU in the same manner that Greenland was annex from Denmark.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    Posted By: renewablejohnThis can be achieved by a simple annex of England and Wales from the UK membership of the EU in the same manner that Greenland was annex from Denmark.
    I don't thing so because:

    1) Greenland's devolution from Denmark did not immediately result in its exit from the EEC, that was a separate later step and

    2) That was before Article 50 codified the exit process.
    • CommentAuthorsnyggapa
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    lol. devolve England from the UK, leaving a "United" Kingdom consisting of Scotland, NI, Wales and other various bits still as EU members.
  12.  
    On the subject of Prophecies of Doom after Brexit, there's a wonderful piece in the New Yorker:

    http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/what-brexit-means-for-british-food

    It is apparently appropriate to start talking about the Dutch Starvation Winter of 1944-5.

    Remember to mention the War !!


    Mansholt saw the union’s role as preventing any recurrence of famine, such as the terrible “Hunger Winter” suffered by the Netherlands in 1944 and 1945. Mansholt’s dream was for Europe to become as self-sufficient as possible in food.


    I'm finding the Chicken-Licken activities of the Hysteriat quite amusing.

    Ferdinand
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    [quote}The fall in the pound will make imported plant and materials (or those containing imported components or materials) more expensive[/quote]

    There was a call into Radio4 a day or two back from a company that does bricklaying. Said the UK didn't make enough bricks and the most of the bricks they use come from Spain. Claimed he'd already been hit £10k by the falling £.
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-branson-virgin-eu-referendum-brexit-how-much-lost-a7107261.html

    Richard Branson: Virgin lost a third of its value, cancelled contract worth 3,000 jobs because of leave victory
  15.  
    Posted By: CWatters[quote}The fall in the pound will make imported plant and materials (or those containing imported components or materials) more expensive[/quote]

    There was a call into Radio4 a day or two back from a company that does bricklaying. Said the UK didn't make enough bricks and the most of the bricks they use come from Spain. Claimed he'd already been hit £10k by the falling £.


    Pleased to hear he has been hit 10k maybe next time he will buy British bricks and cut down on the transport costs. Instead of UK brick manufacturers mothballing plant through lack of orders.
    • CommentAuthorbxman
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    So less than 3% of the Electorate decided to kick the Establishment in the Privates


    and as a result the majority of the Population are to be taken out of Europe against their will.


    Never mind all the Chaos that has already occurred and IMO will sadly only get worse


    For the sake of Humanity the the Electorate should have had the opportunity.

    to express dis-satisfaction with their situation without influencing the result of the vote in question.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: renewablejohnPleased to hear he has been hit 10k maybe next time he will buy British bricks and cut down on the transport costs. Instead of UK brick manufacturers mothballing plant through lack of orders.

    To reopen plants, UK brick manufacturers need at least two things. Brick prices to be high enough to make their use viable - well with the pound falling we're heading in that direction (though the cost of firing them will also go up due to fuel price increases, counteracting that to some extent). And they also need to confidence that the construction market will be stable or growing to use the bricks - which seems unlikely in current circumstances. So I guess that those plants will stay mothballed for some time to come.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: bxmanSo less than 3% of the Electorate decided to kick the Establishment in the Privates

    Well I'm not sure of your percentages, but those that thought they were kicking the establishment in the privates are likely to find that its their own privates that feel the pain - along with those of the rest of us.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Interesting TED talk this week: Why you think you're right — even if you're wrong

    https://www.ted.com/talks/julia_galef_why_you_think_you_re_right_even_if_you_re_wrong
  20.  
    Posted By: CWattershttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-branson-virgin-eu-referendum-brexit-how-much-lost-a7107261.html" >http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richard-branson-virgin-eu-referendum-brexit-how-much-lost-a7107261.html

    Richard Branson: Virgin lost a third of its value, cancelled contract worth 3,000 jobs because of leave victory


    I find that rather petulant, and a little vindictive, of him.

    A deal that big takes many months to negotiate, and to make a decision like that within 24 hours is mad.

    And then we will have a good deal more certainty within a very short period.

    Further, I can see no proof that Virgin has actually lost anything like that much value, and as it is a privately held coorporation they are well placed to ride it out anyway.

    Virgin Money, which *is* listed, and arguably the most vulnerable part, fell by 45% then bounced back by 18%.

    Ferdinand
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    Further, I can see no proof that Virgin has actually lost anything like that much value, and as it is a privately held coorporation they are well placed to ride it out anyway.

    Virgin Money, which *is* listed, and arguably the most vulnerable part, fell by 45% then bounced back by 18%.


    I guess you need to remind yourself how percentages work. If something falls 45% and then gains 18% it ends up down 35.1% on the original price. That's a bit more than the third that Branson stated.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: ferdinand2000A deal that big takes many months to negotiate, and to make a decision like that within 24 hours is mad.

    It sounds entirely sensible to me.
    If your pay had just been cut for some indeterminate amount of time, and your costs were going up, and maybe you might need to downsize or move house in a couple of year's time, would you really go ahead and sign a larger mortgage and build that new extension? I'd call that reckless.

    Posted By: ferdinand2000And then we will have a good deal more certainty within a very short period.

    I really don't know what to say to that one.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    Full Richard Branson interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GQZyP_Odio
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016
     
    And to think, at this time just one week ago I was at the counting station as an observer, waiting for the first of the ballot boxes to come in from the polling stations. My god, was it really just one week ago?

    Such a pity we left, because it now means we'll have to train our own bricklayers, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, painters and decorators, instead of being able to employ the much cheaper East and Southern European tradesmen that were so abundant under the old regime, all trained by the governments of their own countries. I suppose we'll have to hope that the UK guys who had to close their businesses down will still have their tools and equipment and be able to pick up where they left off. I know at least three who couldn't compete and still pay their mortgages, so there must be others, so that'll be OK.

    And just think how much it's going to cost us in training our own people to be doctors and nurses and other health care professionals, when under the old regime we could let other countries pay to train their own people who would then come and work for us, so that all we had to do was let them in and put them through a conversion course at minimal cost.

    And let's not mention the fishermen, who we've put in the really awkward position of having to sit down and try and work out if they can afford to buy another boat to replace the one they had to destroy because it was pointless having a fishing boat if you weren't allowed to catch the fish in their own territorial fishing grounds. God, how inconsiderate is that of us, I ask you.

    Ah regrets, and all we have left to console ourselves with is the thought of being free from the prospect of having to join the euro zone within the next year and being free to trade with the rest of the world on terms that favour no one but ourselves.

    Poor us.
    • CommentAuthorGotanewlife
    • CommentTimeJun 30th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: Joinerfree to trade
    Free! That it won't be, in fact we'll have to agree with the EU's terms including paying a lot of money, abiding by their rules and allowing some sort of free movement of people - in fact not much will change, just be worse terms than before and we'll not get a chance to affect the regs and policies we will still have to abide by. And we won't be training our own tradesmen as you put it because the ones already here won't be leaving - the thing is: you can't stop globalisation and you can't stop market forces. Naive, naive, naive.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeJul 1st 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: JoinerSuch a pity we left, because it now means we'll have to train our own bricklayers, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, painters and decorators, instead of being able to employ the much cheaper East and Southern European tradesmen that were so abundant under the old regime

    You'll find that European operatives aren't so cheap - some foreign bricklayers can earn £1,000 per week: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-building-firms-hiring-bricklayers-from-portugal-for-1000-a-week-9912324.html

    But despite that it's unsurprising that people avoid the industry - it's is about the most volatile sector in the economy and has been subject to repeated booms and busts for decades. After the last crash there were 400,000 job losses in construction, and by 2013 the number of construction apprentices had dropped to 7,280, half the figure before the 2008 financial crisis. Not difficult to spot the connection. (http://www.ciob.org/sites/default/files/No%20more%20lost%20generations%20report.pdf)

    In addition to allowing EU workers to come here when there are peaks, free movement also allows UK workers to work in Europe when there are busts (remember Auf Wiedersehen, Pet? Worth Googling it if not - migration isn't all in one direction); if that option is cut off then UK workers may be in for an even bigger rollercoaster.
    • CommentAuthorcjard
    • CommentTimeJul 1st 2016
     
    Posted By: Joiner I know at least three who couldn't compete and still pay their mortgages..


    More than one way to balance that equation out though, isn't there?
  28.  
    Posted By: Mike1
    Posted By: JoinerSuch a pity we left, because it now means we'll have to train our own bricklayers, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, painters and decorators, instead of being able to employ the much cheaper East and Southern European tradesmen that were so abundant under the old regime


    But despite that it's unsurprising that people avoid the industry - it's is about the most volatile sector in the economy and has been subject to repeated booms and busts for decades. After the last crash there were 400,000 job losses in construction, and by 2013 the number of construction apprentices had dropped to 7,280, half the figure before the 2008 financial crisis. Not difficult to spot the connection. (http://www.ciob.org/sites/default/files/No%20more%20lost%20generations%20report.pdf)


    We need to be careful about timing and stats on this.

    The number of people starting construction apprenticeships has jumped by a third between the low point (2011/12 and 2012/13) and 2014/15, with a further increase this year.

    Figures for apprentice ship starts in construction:

    2010/11 - 22420
    2011/12 - 13920
    2012/13 - 13730
    2013/14 - 15890
    2014/15 - 18290
    2015/16 (9 months) - 18340 => 20k+ (?)

    Source - Apprenticeships geography, equality & diversity and sector subject area: starts 2002/03 to 2015/16 reported to date - https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/530824/apprenticeships-starts-by-geography-learner-demographics-and-sector-subject-area.xls

    Clearly there is a squeeze in numbers working through, and the point about volatility has weight.

    How long is a construction apprenticeship?

    About half tend to complete the course, so where does that leave us, bearing in mind that Housing Output is heading towards 200k now?

    Ferdinand
  29.  
    Posted By: Mike1
    Posted By: ferdinand2000A deal that big takes many months to negotiate, and to make a decision like that within 24 hours is mad.

    It sounds entirely sensible to me.
    If your pay had just been cut for some indeterminate amount of time, and your costs were going up, and maybe you might need to downsize or move house in a couple of year's time, would you really go ahead and sign a larger mortgage and build that new extension? I'd call that reckless.

    No. I would quietly put the deal on the backburner and wait a bit to see what was happening which costs little or nothing.

    If the situation is volatile and unpredictable and could go either way, it is not sensible to call the outcome. But Branson wanted his attention.

    It wouldn't surprise me if it is setup such that he can put the deal back on easily.

    It is worth noting that - far from Branson talking about his entire £4bn empire losing a third of its value as he said on TV, he actually says now that he meant Virgin Money only, of which iirc he owns 20% which is worth 4-5% of his wealth. The media is overegging that pudding.

    Posted By: ferdinand2000And then we will have a good deal more certainty within a very short period.

    I really don't know what to say to that one.


    I think it is quite clear. Compare last week and this week.

    A few days ago the hysteriat were telling us:

    - If we vote Brexit the French will cancel the Le Touquet treaty and Kent will be full of 'refugee' camps, and we won't be able to do anything.
    - If we vote Brexit the UK will be smashed to smithereens.
    - Now we have voted Brexit the economy is in chaos and it is all collapsing.
    - The City of London is going to die because we can't have more control over borders and free movement of people without giving it all away.
    - The Government and the Labour Party are all in meltdown.
    - Boris will be the new Prime Minister.

    Well...

    - Monsieur Hollande confirmed yesterday that the Le Toquet Treaty was not under threat of suspension.
    - The Spanish have told Nicola Sturgeon to take a running jump with her fast track Scotland into the EU proposals. They have a veto.
    - The economy has not instantly collapsed, there's a slowdown due on normal business cycles anyway, and measures are in train already to help.
    - It is becoming clear that a lot more things are on the table in negotiations, and our Government are taking a very level headed approach.
    - I am not sure about the Labour Party, but they hardly matter at present apart from the hole they have left in our politics.
    - Large corporate bonds have been oversubscribed this week.
    - Boris has just been demolsihed. It looks like we are going to end up with Theresa May, who is the closest thing this country has to Angela Merkel. There is likely to be a new Government and Cabinet in place within 8-10 weeks.

    Sure, there are going to be challenegs and problems - what do you expect after 43 years, but some signs are positive, and the more scary fairy tales are evaporating.

    Ferdinand
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 1st 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: ferdinand2000but some signs are positive
    Such as? I am sure most that could be thought up could easily be demolished.
    As far as I can see, nothing has gone up in value, the public are not better off, no deals have been struck, hardly any negotiation, lots of politicians, both here and globally, has said that it is not a good idea to leave.
    So where is the good news? Let me know and I shall go an invest your pension pot in it for you.:wink:

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