Politics: EU:- in or out?

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- CommentAuthorPile-o-Stone
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
It's a lot easier to effect change in a national parliament than it is in an international one. I'm excited by the opportunities that devolution will bring (I live in the GM area and we have are going through the process with health and local government). Democracy is better served the more local it is to the citizen.
- CommentAuthorwillie.macleod
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: Steamy TeaInteresting that the immigration figures have just come out (184,000) and from my viewpoint, this is a success.

You've taken the net migration number. Far more telling is the number of NI numbers issued to EU nationals which is a number around 630,000. Getting a NI number is an indicator you are not here for a holiday.

We tend to export skilled workers or at least those who can support themselves abroad in some other way with a nest egg or pension as other countries either won't let them in or won't generously shower them with all sorts of benefits. We can't say the same for those who are coming in.
- CommentAuthorSteamyTea
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016 edited
Yes, I took the net figures because I was thinking of national resources, and I listened to the programme on the radio the other day about the NI numbers, but they did say that a lot left within 3 months of applying for it. And some will be students, dependant spouses, self financing business people, it is not all people that just want our benefits (imigrants claim less than the indigenous population anyway).
When I lived in the USA I got a social security number, had to so I could open a bank account (I am allowed to move to the USA and live permanently anyway) and a driving license.

Exporting skilled workers has been going on for decades, my parents (electrical engineer/teacher) worked abroad for over 25 years, paid UK NI though, as many do. On the back of those skilled exports, the nation imported oil (before the North Sea was developed) and some skilled business people (there is a few restaurants in London run by my Mother's ex pupils).
In 1963/4, we became refugees from Brunei. Initially we ended up in Singapore, but it could not cope with the influx, the Governor of Hong Kong (a very crowded place even then) let us in (when I say us, it was approaching 20,000 people). So it is not just the 'foreigners' that need bailing out, it can happen to anyone (my Aunt became a refugee from Palestine and then Jordan in the late 1960's, Canada eventually took them in, but it was 'proper' British until 1976).
So the point I am making is that quite often 'Skilled British workers' are also a drain on the UK's resources too and this is why I think that free movement of workers is a good thing. Get rid of the prejudice and look at the benefits.
If you disagree, and you are more than welcome to, first check out your purchasing habits, you will probably find that most are imported. Importing goods is just the same as importing workers in economics, but costs more.
So if you want a thriving economy, plenty of cheap goods and a fluid, well educated works force that pays local taxes, then think of immigrants as part of the market, rather than marginalised people that are a problem to be irradicated .
- CommentAuthorPeter_in_Hungary
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: willie.macleodYou've taken the net migration number. Far more telling is the number of NI numbers issued to EU nationals which is a number around 630,000. Getting a NI number is an indicator you are not here for a holiday.

Surely the difference between the net (184k) and the gross (630K) implies that a lot have left or have I got this wrong?

Our family employ an EU citizen as a career for my mother, we first advertised in the UK and got no takers, our carer is in the UK to do her job she goes home for 2 weeks every 2 months - does this mean she is counted again when she comes back? I don't know how sophisticated the system is!

If Brexit wins what will happen to my mothers carer, will she be kicked out or do we have to apply for a work permit? If its the work permit option then no change to EU migration just a shed load of paper work for us. If she is kicked out where do we get a career, given that we already tried advertising in the UK with no success? Could the NHS provide one since she is registered disabled?

It has been said that EU migration is holding down wages - well kick out the EU migrants and wages rise(?) who pays for this increase and what is the effect on inflation? (and what happens to the jobs that can't be filled by the Brits?)

Could someone enlighten me as I have been out of the UK for some time, can an EU migrant rock up to Dover with his family on Friday and go and claim unemployment and other benefits on Monday?
- CommentAuthorwillie.macleod
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: SteamyTeaSo if you want a thriving economy, plenty of cheap goods and a fluid, well educated works force that pays local taxes, then think of immigrants as part of the market, rather than marginalised people that are a problem to be irradicated .

It's the discrepancies in the UK immigration I dislike, if you are from the EU you can do no wrong and are welcomed with open arms. I've already mentioned my close family and the effect our disastrous immigration policy has on them. I just found out that the family I bought my last vehicle from is about to be deported - they are Aussies, came over here on a home office initiative, both are active - one works, one studies, kid in Gaelic medium education, all have integrated well - and the government now want to get rid of them?! Even with questions being asked in parliament at PMQ no sensible action taken yet. No Nick, I don't think immigrants are a problem to eradicated, I think we should have a level playing field and play fair. If you are coming here and are willing and able to work and support yourself and your family then that's fine by me. Take away the artificial geographic barriers.
- CommentAuthorowlman
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
There you go ST reducing it all to numbers, as if that's the only angle, it's more nuanced than that.
- CommentAuthorPeter_in_Hungary
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: SteamyTeaIn 1963/4, we became refugees from Brunei. Initially we ended up in Singapore, but it could not cope with the influx, the Governor of Hong Kong (a very crowded place even then) let us in (when I say us, it was approaching 20,000 people). So it is not just the 'foreigners' that need bailing out, it can happen to anyone (my Aunt became a refugee from Palestine and then Jordan in the late 1960's, Canada eventually took them in, but it was 'proper' British until 1976).

My wife was a refugee from Hungary in 1956, she was first in a refugee camp in Austria and when the UK offered her parents a place in the UK then the family went to the UK. Others from the camp went to differing countries around the world. The point is that refugees were held in camps until a country offered them a place. How different today when a mixture of refugees and migrants turn up at Europes door step and demand to go to Germany and refuse to be registered anywhere on route. And it seems that the international community (and the refugees and migrants) think they have a right to do this.

If todays refugees were held in camps and could apply to any country they wished - the target country then has a choice - the international community sort out the problem in the refugees home country and then the refugees are repatriated home. The cost of this should be born by the international community. IMO this would focus the minds to sorting out the problems and deter those who are not genuine refugees. (and perhaps control a bit the terrorist infiltration with the refugees and migrants)

Posted By: SteamyTeaExporting skilled workers has been going on for decades,

Yep I remember the '10 pound poms' adverts - Sorry 10 pound assisted passage to Australia adverts in Post Offices in my youth. I also knew a detective sargent in Brixton who emigrated to Australia - just before a scandal broke!
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: owlmanThere you go ST reducing it all to numbers, as if that's the only angle, it's more nuanced than that.
You mean ST's beautifully nuanced and contextualised numbers kick out the props under your own 'nuances'.
- CommentAuthorSteamyTea
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016 edited
Posted By: willie.macleodIt's the discrepancies in the UK immigration I dislike, if you are from the EU you can do no wrong and are welcomed with open arms....Take away the artificial geographic barriers.
I think we are agreeing here.
My Cornish neighbour dislikes all immigrants, including me, as he blames them for stealing his work and driving the price down. I always ask if he has applied for every single job that an 'immigrant' has denied him. I also point out that his wife can work full time in a well paid job and that they also get state back up for their child. He still does not get it.

Posted By: owlmanThere you go ST reducing it all to numbers, as if that's the only angle, it's more nuanced than that.
It keeps things in perspective though, bit like working out which type of heating system to go for without knowing your need. There has been some terrible corruption in the figures by the Brexit lot. Less so with the Remain lot. So if your happy not to use number, can I pay you with platitudes?

Posted By: Peter_in_HungaryIf todays refugees were held in camps and could apply to any country they wished
We were in a refugee camp in Singapore. Was like the Tenko prison apparently (I was a bit too young to remember clearly).
There is a difference between legal, economic migration and humanitarian migration, but in this EU debate there seems to be no discrimination between them.
- CommentAuthorwillie.macleod
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: Peter_in_Hungary
Could someone enlighten me as I have been out of the UK for some time, can an EU migrant rock up to Dover with his family on Friday and go and claim unemployment and other benefits on Monday?

No, couldn't claim unemployment unless you can show you had been here 3 months. However if they came over with their family and they start on a minimum wage job then you would be looking at;

Housing benefit
Council tax benefit
Child benefit
Working tax credit
Child tax credit

All the above should be available and will combine to far more than whatever is in the wage packet.

Is your carer fully on the books, do you pay her NI/tax/pension contributions? If so then I couldn't see any problem with her remaining an employee, anyone like that would doubtless be left to continue as they are.

Speak with your council regarding care services (their social work dept can liaise with the NHS regarding special needs/disabilities), they can be very helpful - it can be a lot more efficient having their carers come in half a dozen times a day/night and using a telephone based alert system for emergencies rather than paying someone to live in house 24/7 if that level of care is not required.
- CommentAuthorwillie.macleod
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: SteamyTeaI think we are agreeing here.
...
There is a difference between legal, economic migration and humanitarian migration, but in this EU debate there seems to be no discrimination between them.

Yes. If they left the immigration policy to us then between us I think we could work out something fair
- CommentAuthorowlman
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: fostertom
Posted By: owlmanThere you go ST reducing it all to numbers, as if that's the only angle, it's more nuanced than that.
You mean ST's beautifully nuanced and contextualised numbers kick out the props under your own 'nuances'.

No, I meant this bit;-

"then think of immigrants as part of the market"

For goodness sake tom will you stop having a go, its not the first time, and I don't just mean this thread, You frequently look at having a sly poke at me. It's not nice.
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
I'm sorry owlman, I didn't know it was you usually.
- CommentAuthorowlman
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Accepted:- Maybe I'm being sensitive, a tricky job on the go at the moment.
- CommentAuthorMike1
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: Ed DaviesBut that's exactly the point: it's your definition of â€œOURâ€ that matters. Why the people of one specific geographical area (ie., one particular nation state left over from the 17th century [Â¹])? Not your village? Not your continent? Personally, I feel more in common with many people scattered around Europe (and other places) than with many (most?) people in Britain.

I have to agree with you again, Ed.
- CommentAuthorMike1
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
MarkyPArguments for and against are complex and often built upon somehow knowing how a massive change will impact on a complex system. I do laugh at the political and economic commentators in the media on both sides of the debate predicting how the economy will react - are these people smarter forecasters or better tea leaf readers than those that didn't spot the debt bubble and impending crash during the last crisis? Predicting behaviour in complex systems following a small change is hard, following a major change is just foolish.

Economic modelling is far from perfect, but models have been improving over decades, and when all the world's major economic forecasters are saying that their models are predicting similar outcomes, chances are they may be onto something. Much as when all all the world's climate modellers are predicting increases in global warming, they might just be right.
- CommentAuthorCWatters
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Any idea how Brexit will affect house building in general?

In 2014 the UK imported something like 700,000 tons of bricks (60-90,000 tons a month). I believe there is also a shortage of light weight blocks at the moment which is leading to increased imports. If the Â£ falls these will all become more expensive.
- CommentAuthorCWatters
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
In the event of Brexit it's very unlikely that anyone already living and working in the UK will be forced to leave.

So in the event of a vote to leave there could be a rush of people to get into the UK before formal exit, or whenever new legislation can be enacted.

It's been predicted that Brexit could take two years. Could new legislation be enacted sooner or would we still be bound by the free movement laws for those two years?
- CommentAuthorMarkyP
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
I agree with you, Mike1. Interpreting the output modeling (no modeling of a complex system can ever be perfect) is cdertainly valid and useful so long as it is carefully represented. In my earlier post I mocked those commentating on the output of these models, not those doing the modeling. The data modelers would tell you that the models are imperfect with built in assumptions and flaws, useful and good to consider possibilities and probabilities, but never predictions. Unfortunately, the cynical nature of the campaigns and flawed understanding of risk by many seems to have resulted in a slew of "if you vote leave the UK will slide into recession forever" sentiment, which angers me.

As I say, I think about the only thing I feel sure of in all of this is that a vote for leave will trigger a massive change in our society and political system - biggest for generations. I've got my eyes open to the risks but see an opportunity too big to pass up.
- CommentAuthorPeter_in_Hungary
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016 edited
Posted By: willie.macleodIs your carer fully on the books, do you pay her NI/tax/pension contributions?

OF COURSE!
But after brexit presumably a work permit would be needed - as would I presume every other EU national working here - and would this make any difference to the number of EU nationals working here, probably not but it would generate a tremendous amount of paper work.
Posted By: willie.macleodNo, couldn't claim unemployment unless you can show you had been here 3 months. However if they came over with their family and they start on a minimum wage job then you would be looking at;

Housing benefit
Council tax benefit
Child benefit
Working tax credit
Child tax credit

Most of the EU citizens working in the UK that I know are alone and their families are back in their home country where the children have school in their own language. I'm not sure how many EU workers have taken their children out to the UK to start school in a strange country in an unknown language. Perhaps there are statistics on this somewhere, maybe as a %age of total EU workers? And does this differ from non-EU migrants?

As I said earlier in this thread, before we employed direct we used an agency. Here the carers were all African and of the 4 that we were sent 2 were single mothers and 2 had family in Africa to whom they sent money, so being entitled to in-work benefit would apply to 50% of our experience on non EU workers.
Posted By: willie.macleodSpeak with your council regarding care services (their social work dept can liaise with the NHS regarding special needs/disabilities), they can be very helpful - it can be a lot more efficient having their carers come in half a dozen times a day/night

Unfortunately my mother needs 24/7 attendance and the LA charge for visits, including travel time so very quickly you get to the point where its cheaper to employ someone - if you can find them!
- CommentAuthorShevek
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
I moved to UK (from NZ) over a decade ago on an ancestry visa so that I can eventually go live in Spain. So I'll be rather pissed off from a selfish point of view if the UK votes out.

On the political front I agree with Ed. There's much to be improved about the EU but I doubt Europe would remain as relatively peaceful as it has been without integration. Especially when you consider what looks to be heading our way... climate change (incl. food/water shortages and land conflict), nuclear weapons proliferation, antibiotic resistance, peak oil...

Concerns about the implications of a lot of immigration are valid, but I still find it ironic coming from a country that's spent most of its history sailing around the world settling other people's lands.
- CommentAuthorSimon Still
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
<blockquote><cite>Posted By: Shevek</cite>I still find it ironic coming from a country that's spent most of its history sailing around the world settling other people's lands.</blockquote>

:-)

When I hitch-hiking around NZ (some 25 years back now) we got a lift from a white South African who had relocated to NZ relatively recently who then moaned about the 'bloody immigrants' in New Zealand.
- CommentAuthorCWatters
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016 edited
http://www.euronews.com/business-newswires/3199560-global-funds-raise-cash-bond-holdings-on-brexit-fed-fears/

Global funds raise cash, bond holdings on Brexit, Fed fears

LONDON (Reuters) â€“ Global investors have raised their holdings of cash and bonds, citing fears about potential shock waves from a Brexit vote rippling beyond Britain and the increased likelihood of a rise in U.S. interest rates this summer.

Fund managers polled by Reuters in the United States, Europe, Britain and Japan raised cash allocations to 6 percent in May, the highest level since January when global equity markets were in free-fall.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-funds-poll-europe-idUKKCN0YI1CG

European funds slash UK equities to 17-month low on looming Brexit vote - Reuters poll

European investors have slashed holdings of British stocks to the lowest in 17 months, with many citing major fallout risks attached to a possible UK exit from the European Union as the main reason for their caution.
- CommentAuthorEd Davies
- CommentTimeMay 27th 2016
Posted By: Simon StillWhen I hitch-hiking around NZ (some 25 years back now) we got a lift from a white South African who had relocated to NZ relatively recently who then moaned about the 'bloody immigrants' in New Zealand.
Can't remember where heard this quote but â€œif there's somewhere they don't have immigrants I'm moving thereâ€.
- CommentAuthordjh
- CommentTimeMay 31st 2016
vord wote: "I'm not sure economics will be a lot different one way or the other The Flexcit plan offers a low risk approach that would likely be adopted in the event of an exit which seems more realistic than the lies fed by both sides of the 'debate' - http://www.eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf "

That's an excellent read. Thanks Malcolm. I particularly liked:

"The scope exists for the UK to do [the same as Australia], agreeing to match EU trade harmonisation laws by way of a unilateral declaration, based on the current EEA acquis. This does not need the approval of EU member states. As we would be maintaining the all-important regulatory convergence, we can insist on access to Single Market, invoking WTO non-discrimination rules."

and

"For instance, the right of residence to citizens of EU member states for more than three months is conditional on those citizens being economically selfsufficient. Those who are not can be deported under existing EU law."

I wonder if they are correct?

I've just started reading the one by Mansfield that won the prize.
- CommentAuthorSimon Still
- CommentTimeMay 31st 2016
The best case for staying in/leaving the EU comes from Boris Johnson

https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/the-great-eu-debate-boris-johnson-vs-boris-johnson/
- CommentAuthorvord
- CommentTimeMay 31st 2016 edited
Posted By: djhI wonder if they are correct?

Dr North has researched this sort of thing for many years and seems fairly sound, but he is frustrated by mainstream politics and keeps calling Boris a moron. He has a blog at www.eureferendum.com which is fairly even handed but is written from an out point of view.

Are there any equivalent pro EU websites someone could link which avoid the mainstream politics lies and call Cameron a moron? That could help at least working out a balanced view with the stuff the reasonable folk on the other side forget to mention.

In this day and age the internet ought to be capable of providing that sort of thing and getting around the mass of mis-information that I find irritating.
- CommentAuthordjh
- CommentTimeMay 31st 2016 edited
Posted By: vordDr North has researched this sort of thing for many years and seems fairly sound, but he is frustrated by mainstream politics and keeps calling Boris a moron.

I like the Flexcit plan that North and Oulds wrote but they both seem to have a somewhat chequered history. North on climate, for example.

Boris I think of as dangerous and ruthless but moron is a novel idea. Thanks also to Simon.
- CommentAuthorowlman
- CommentTimeMay 31st 2016
Posted By: vord
Posted By: djhI wonder if they are correct?

In this day and age the internet ought to be capable of providing that sort of thing and getting around the mass of mis-information that I find irritating.

I'll have a read of that link, vord. It sounds interesting.

I'm dismayed at the BBC coverage, which is so heavily slanted toward the remain camp, it does make me wonder if they've been leaned on. Their approach is very subtle and subliminal but nevertheless discernible.
I've idly timed a couple of supposedly balanced reports and they both were about 60/40% in favour of remain. In one they featured two proponents of remain, and only one in the leave camp. The line of questioning is often more aggressive toward the leavers too.
- CommentAuthorborpin
- CommentTimeJun 1st 2016
Posted By: Mike1Economic modelling is far from perfect
Well that is the understatement of the year.

Put 10 economists in a room and you will get 11 different answers.

Those same models predicted the 2008 collapse, didn't they? Well a few did but the majority poo poo'd them. Sound familiar?

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Politics: EU:- in or out?