Solar PV RIP?

A lot of people think solar PV is dead, but they are labouring under a misapprehension, yes the Feed in Tariff scheme is about to end but it is no longer needed. My local University has just installed solar panels on several buildings on its campus outside of the Feed in tariff scheme, the installations were economic without it. One of our best local private schools is about to commission its fourth solar PV system, the first three, which have all been instilled in the last few years, are returning at 12% or more on investment and the best one at almost 16%, the next installation will give returns of over 12% and the capital costs are coming down. Energy prices are only ever going to rise so these returns will actually increase over the coming years.

Dead, not by a long way

Yes, exactly, they can self supply cheaper than they can buy from the grid and once installed their costs are fixed but grid electricity prices rise most likely ahead of inflation so they are better off doing it than not.

Over here you get the wholesale price of power for what you export to the grid - a small fraction of what you are charged for power taken from the grid. (i.e. as much as possible is stripped out of the payment e.g. grid cost etc.) The effect is that people only put in enough on their roof to cover their needs on an annual basis and reconciliation is done annually.

At the moment the general figure quoted is for an 11 year ROI on domestically installed PV and with an 80% output guarantee for 25 years on the panels makes some sense for those with the spare funds to install PV.

However the EU recently announced removal of import tariffs on Chinese PV which is expected to drive down module prices by as much as 30% almost immediately and there is forecast a 40% growth in new PV installations for 2019. It will be interesting to see how much the price actually drops and what that does to the ROI figures.

So with the removal of EU tariffs and the Trump tech tariffs placed on Chinese goods there is an expectation of a push on Chinese PV sales into Europe.

MIP ??

Ah I see. And net metering, which would seem a solution, I think someone told me would actually be quite complicated to introduce in the UK.

Alternatively, couldn't they pay a one-off, lump sum grant subsidy, roughly based on expected total export contribution to the grid over the lifetime of the install, on new installs? Even a £500 one-off payment for a 4kW system would knock a decent chunk off current installation costs, while being less subsidy than the current system pays out in just a few years (I think).

Peter MIP = Minimum Import Price = EU tarrifs (again I think!)

The golden goose has laid a little egg and so we've been thinking about biting the PV bullet.

Trouble is we only use 5kWh per day, so payback even if we install before March is going to take us past our own sell-by dates.

So we've been sitting on the fence a tad. With a 4kWhp system we will generate twice as much as we use a year, maybe with a Powerwall 2 later on if and when the islanding feature is available. On the other hand we think about the cost to the environment of the kit and the fact that we are about to switch to Ecotricity or similar in the near future. So what's the right thing to do?

Then on Monday the IPC report came out. We guess it's better to be producing and exporting than not, but it's all a bit problematical.

Posted By: dickster
Trouble is we only use 5kWh per day, so payback even if we install before March is going to take us past our own sell-by dates.

Does PV absolutely have to have a full financial payback, as in 'paying for itself', for it to be worthwhile?
Of all the other things your golden egg might be spent on, how many are going to 'pay for themselves', ever?

Posted By: GarethCAnd net metering, which would seem a solution, I think someone told me would actually be quite complicated to introduce in the UK.

Posted By: skyewrightDoes it require anything more than making it 'legal' and reasonable to have a meter that can reverse

Correct - That is what happens over here. When you install grid tied PV you get a bidirectional meter and you can opt for annual reconciliation which will iron out the summer/winter differances

Posted By: djh

Posted By: Peter_in_Hungary

Posted By: GarethCAnd net metering, which would seem a solution, I think someone told me would actually be quite complicated to introduce in the UK.

Posted By: skyewrightDoes it require anything more than making it 'legal' and reasonable to have a meter that can reverse

Correct - That is what happens over here. When you install grid tied PV you get a bidirectional meter and you can opt for annual reconciliation which will iron out the summer/winter differances

Net metering is a fudge just like the FIT though. It's an alternative incentive scheme. No other generator gets retail price for energy sent to the grid at a time of their choosing. As Tom says, storage is the key and that's where the incentives should be now. (Admittedly, I'm happy with my 2015 FIT incentive, so I'm biased)http:///newforum/extensions/Vanillacons/smilies/standard/shocked.gif" alt="" title="" >

It's not fudge. if the the end of the year your meter is +ve then you pay the retail price for the kWhs if however the meter is -ve then you get the wholesale production price for your excess over usage which is lots less than the retail price (which is why over here no domestic PV is installed with more than the calculated annual usage)

I wonder if it will become easier for PV to be installed by general builders or roofers or DIY, maybe with a sparky to finalise the hook up. There's not much market for this yet because everyone had to bring in a MCS outfit, or no subsidy.

Posted By: djhIt is a fudge. Why should you effectively be paid retail price for electricity that you contribute to the grid, and especially why should you get to determine the price, rather than the spot price in the wholesale market at the time you contribute? Basically, you produce most in the summer, during the day, whilst the peak demand and price is in the winter during the evening. Now historically, firms have chosen to smooth out the price variations and charge a constant rate throughout the year, but that doesn't reflect reality.

Here, at no time do you get the retail price for the electricity you contribute to the grid, what you get is the annualised wholesale production price. And yes energy providers smooth the price variations to give an annualised rate because the meters and the billing can't cope with anything else (enter smart meters??) and I doubt that consumers could cope either, so to follow in the same manner domestic PV grid contribution is also paid at the annualised wholesale production price - which as I said is nowhere near the (annualised) retail price which will include grid/distribution charges and VAT

Or even, like other electrics, DIY if you can find an electrician to sign the work off?

Sounds promising! Then, a market needs to develop for roofer-friendly panels that come with integrated microinverters per panel, and foolproof weatherproof AC plug connectors. Sparky runs a radial to the CU with fuse and an isolator.

Presumably no generation meter is needed, if you're not getting paid for it.

Is G83 notification still value-adding at that point, or could it be covered by the general Part P for the job (or Scottish eqv)

Will , G83 is a statutory requirement if you want your system connected to the DNO grid.
Personally I think the PV panel DC cable to main inverter to CU is the most robust simple setup. It's pretty much 'plug and play' and reduced the amount of components up on the roof that might go wrong.
A simple small system with one or two strings and each string having the panel all with the same solar exposure is well within the skill set of any roofer and electrician with a bit of sense, a short read of the mounting kit and inverter installation instructions tell you 99% of what you need to know to do the job. Rewiring a house offers more physical and mental challenges than installing a simple pv system.

Yes, the emboddied energy point is good: I'll add it to my piece.

Note that our household background load is ~60W (varies between about 20W and 100W depending on what the fridge/freezer is up to).

Rgds

Damon