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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
Green Building Bible, fourth edition (both books)
These two books are the perfect starting place to help you get to grips with one of the most vitally important aspects of our society - our homes and living environment.

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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022 edited
     
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/italys-superbonus-110-scheme-prompts-surge-of-green-home-renovations

    "... Italy’s generous superbonus 110% scheme, which has so far cost the government about €21bn (£17.5bn) since launching in July 2020 as part of the country’s post-pandemic recovery strategy"

    "... the vast majority of the money coming from the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund ... a “shock tactic” to get the system going in a country with a huge stock of old or poorly constructed buildings"

    Like FiTS - I suppose a miracle that happened in UK - hugely succesful, despite its funding source (everyone's electricity bill) making it a retrogressive tax on the poor, for middle class benefit.
  1.  
    Blimey: they spent £17.5bn on 122,000 properties - that's £140k average on each property - what are they doing with all that? Surely some journalist has made a mistake with the numbers?

    Possibly the UK Energy Company Obligation scheme has been under-sung by comparison

    "[Since 2013] Around 3.5 million measures were installed in 2.4 million properties through the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) [plus a handful through the Green Deal]

    "Solid wall insulation 4%
    Loft insulation 11%
    Other insulation (underfloor) 12%
    Cavity wall insulation 17%
    Boiler upgrades 25%


    "the total cost of ECO was £5.76 billion [=£2k per property]
    [=£0.7bn per year]

    "[A subset of] Around 1.88 million [which is about half of the total installations, were] estimated to deliver £18.7 billion worth of notional lifetime bill savings "

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1056548/HEE_Stats_Release_-_February_2022.pdf

    As with FITS, the ECO is funded stealthily through electricity bills, so is regressive/inefficient/untransparent and now poorly targeted re carbon intensity. I'd like to see both funded from general taxation. ECO spending is at least targeted broadly at those in need of help.

    Under the next tranche of ECO they will stop electricity consumers from funding installation of gas boilers, which will be better, increase funding to £1bn each year and focus on fabric improvement.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022 edited
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenwhat are they doing with all that?
    Earthquake proofing, roof rebuilding are mentioned, not just UK's mainly low-hanging insulation fruits - Loft insulation, Cavity wall insulation, Boiler upgrades 53%; middle branches - Solid wall insulation, Other insulation (underfloor) 16%; (so 31% unspecified but prob not upper branches like Enerphit). Italy's scheme seems to be more like UK's Home Improvement Grants, as was, with added greening, and as everyone's been saying, the prime job-creation element of post-Covid recovery.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022
     
    Italy in severe financial crisis dragging the rest of Europe and the Euro with it. Debt is 150% of GDP - unsustainable! As interest rates rise (due to inflation), they will be unable to service that debt.

    For example...

    https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/580976-is-europe-headed-toward-another-debt-crisis/

    Quite a bit of this is 'disappearing'. 5Bn of the 20Bn in Fraud!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/energy-efficiency-program-led-to-fraud-in-rome-milan

    No such thing as free money.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022
     
    Posted By: borpinNo such thing as free money.
    Not quite true
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deficit-Myth-Modern-Monetary-Economy/dp/1529352568/ref=sr_1_1?crid=38Q3BFTMYHIQ0&keywords=deficit+myth&qid=1649863452&sprefix=deficit+myth%2Caps%2C251&sr=8-1
    but designing schemes so the money reaches the intended hands and no others, stays in economic circulation not syphoned off to inflate stock 'values', is the challenge, and fast savvy plugging of holes thereafter; alternatively an invitation to political connivance. Focus on the latter, rather than poo-pooing the whole idea.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022 edited
     
    I'm not poo-pooing - just pointing out the current situation - that is how it is. The first debt crisis proved that.

    I'll raise you https://positivemoney.org/

    Money doesn't actually exist.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy
  2.  
    Italy are a poor example for MMT as they don't have a national currency. The Italian government spends money that is printed by the European Central Bank and is backed by German and French taxpayers, but Italy has little control over the total money supply into the Euro zone, so no ability to turn money printing on or off to control the heat in their own economy in the way the MMT theorists suggest. Instead they work the old-fashioned way which is to borrow and spend whatever their credit rating and tax base will allow.

    According to MMT, governments should print and distribute money to pump up their economy when it is weak, but at times (like these) of rising inflation and labour shortages, they should rein in the inflating economy by cutting spending, raising taxes, and so withdrawing money from circulation. Which is not far off what the traditionalists think. The "free money" is only available when the Magic Money Tree is in fruitful years!

    The UK and US are not very different from the Euro zone- they have regions within their currency zone that are over-inflating and other regions that are still doing poorly. Much of their economies overlap (through trade) with other countries' economies, so we cannot control inflation in (eg) energy prices simply by slowing down our own currency's printing press, any more than Italy can.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 13th 2022 edited
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenAccording to MMT, governments should print and distribute money to pump up their economy when it is weak, but at times (like these) of rising inflation and labour shortages, they should rein in the inflating economy by cutting spending, raising taxes, and so withdrawing money from circulation.
    Correct, and as 'the market' is no longer doing its 'hidden hand' thing (if it ever does) a great deal of wisdom, skill and integrity is necessary, to regulate the money-tap as you describe. The temptations to all kinds of corrupt/political misuse are still there just the same.

    Posted By: WillInAberdeenWhich is not far off what the traditionalists think. The "free money" is only available when the Magic Money Tree is in fruitful years!
    Yes, but, it's different. As economic activity, esp foundational local small-scale enterprise, is frequently throttled by lack of capital and/or customer spending money even when growth potential exists, an easy-to-create ready supply of same whenever appropriate can tip the balance towards boom, making the boom and bust cycle less inevitable.

    Of course, sustained growth horrifies 'Limits to Growth' era thinking, so the move towards de-materialising the economy - doing same or more with less and less resources - becomes more important than ever.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2022 edited
     
    The problem within the Euro group is different countries have different fiscal policies. Germany v Southern countries. So Italy, for instance, simply spends as much as it likes and just ignores the various dictats from ECB. Right now, that is fine as the yield is low, but as that rises and they need to refinance - that is when the crunch comes. They will face spending an increasing amount of their GDP on interest repayments. UK is not immune to this, but at least our GDP/Debt ratio is (just about) sustainable. Of course, in this instance, inflation is a good thing as it increases your GDP and lowers the ratio.

    IMHO the Euro will fail at some point.

    Posted By: WillInAberdeenbacked by German and French taxpayers
    Less so as Frances GDP/Debt ration balloons.

    Posted By: WillInAberdeenbut Italy has little control over the total money supply
    Money supply is simply a bank adding a ledger entry and hoping everyone who has a credit balance don't decide they want it back.

    More importantly (from the original topic), is the 25% of the money 'spent' on improvements not actually doing improvements.

    When the first Financial Crisis hit, instead of QE inflating stocks, the Gov should have invested in new social housing and housing stock improvements, had a massive drive for new skilled building workforce, invested in modern building methods etc. This would have pumped money into the real economy, reduced unemployment, reduced benefits, improved living standards etc. A missed opportunity.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2022 edited
     
    Posted By: borpinWhen the first Financial Crisis hit, instead of QE inflating stocks, the Gov should have invested in new social housing and housing stock improvements, had a massive drive for new skilled building workforce, invested in modern building methods etc. This would have pumped money into the real economy, reduced unemployment, reduced benefits, improved living standards etc. A missed opportunity.
    Isn't the point of this topic, that that's exactly what Italy is doing, on a notably large and sufficient scale? It's been advocated for Europe, for USA, but the usual fiscal conservatism has prevented - until now? So now we see the snags and dangers - and hopefully learn just how to nurture and encourage an economy, rather than sqeeze and strangle it + inflate stock values, when downturn/inflation comes.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2022 edited
     
    Re fraud, when money flows like water, from
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/14/rishi-sunak-parliaments-icarus-fraud-furlough-chancellor :

    "In organising the £46bn “bounce back loan scheme”, he (Sunak) has overseen the greatest amount of fraud of any chancellor – so bad that one of his own ministers, Lord Agnew, resigned in disgust. Considering the sums of public money involved, this scandal should be on every front page in Britain: tens of thousands of loans handed to potential fraudsters and an estimated figure of up to £20bn lost from the public purse."
  3.  
    Posted By: fostertoma great deal of wisdom, skill and integrity is necessary, to regulate the money-tap as you describe. The temptations to all kinds of corrupt/political misuse are still there just the same.
    There's a general election due in Italy next year I think.

    Most major countries have handed monetary policy over to 'independent' central banks expressly to show separation of powers, incumbent politicians are not supposed to be able to print showers of money just before an election. I think this is a flaw with MMT which talks lots about 'democratic' (IE political) control of the money supply, used by government instead of fiscal policy. In the QE era the incumbent politicians can already borrow showers of money to hand out just before an election (Italy), and that is not different to printing it if the central bank immediately buys up all the government loans.

    There is a rumbling debate in Scotland about whether it is a good idea to be in the Sterling zone together with London, the same as the Germany/Italy Euro problem. However they are both offshoots of bigger political identity debates, and there are no obvious better alternatives, so it will rumble on until there is a crisis (hopefully never).


    If you've tried to buy building materials or get trades recently (as I'm sure you have!), you'll know the building sector is massively overheated with rampant price inflation. The last thing it needs is a sudden wodge of 'stimulus' money arriving over a short period to pump it up some more. That doesn't end up in extra output, it goes straight into the pockets of the suppliers and their suppliers. There needs to be a genuinely long term increase in building investment (decades) which will allow for training, recruitment, building factories, etc.
    From the OP article: "However, soaring demand also pushed up the cost of building services... and left the limited supply of contractors booked up to the hilt for at least a year."
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2022 edited
     
    Posted By: fostertomIsn't the point of this topic, that that's exactly what Italy is doing,
    Yes, and I'm not saying that fundamentally it isn't something that cannot be done but;

    a. Pick a time and don't do it when doing QE as well. We have missed a great time to do it.
    b. Try and avoid 25% fraud. Instead on concentrating on private housing, concentrate on Social Housing through HAs and LCs.

    Posted By: WillInAberdeenThere is a rumbling debate in Scotland about whether it is a good idea to be in the Sterling zone together with London,
    Oh come on - that is a political debate. Any reasonable view from a financial perspective says a. An Indy Scotland would never be allowed to use Sterling, b. An Indy Scotland could not sustain it's own currency. The sharks would have it for breakfast.
  4.  
    Posted By: borpinMore importantly (from the original topic), is the 25% of the money 'spent' on improvements not actually doing improvements.
    If they are spending £150k per property to insulate the roof and fit a heatpump in 1% of their housing stock, it sounds like 85% of the money is not actually going on improvements. It sounds like this is a 'pay someone to dig a hole then fill it in again' scheme as advocated by some 20thC economists - just a way for gov to dump money into the economy. See also Tom's example.
  5.  
    Posted By: borpin
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenThere is a rumbling debate in Scotland about whether it is a good idea to be in the Sterling zone together with London,
    Oh come on - that is a political debate. Any reasonable view from a financial perspective says a. An Indy Scotland would never be allowed to use Sterling, b. An Indy Scotland could not sustain it's own currency. The sharks would have it for breakfast.
    That's what I said!
    Likewise if Italy or Germany left the Euro.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2022
     
    Posted By: WillInAberdeenLikewise if Italy or Germany left the Euro.
    I think Germany could easily survive, but the Euro would collapse if they did leave.
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