In my area lots of small builders and associated trades are experiencing a considerable downturn.

Facebook has plenty of trades looking for work
Scaffolder i use has reduced from 3 gangs to 2 ,unless enquiries and work won picks up he’ll be down to 1 in the new year.
My electrician is no longer answering customer enquiries in the evening, the 3/4 he used to get per day is now that many a week if he’s lucky, so answers every call as it comes in.
Small builders that had 6 months plus work in their books are scratching for work after next spring.
Those that took bounce back loans are not quite as cock sure now that they need repaying. Many of those shiny new builders vans have turned into albatrosses with the finance payments.

Firms that were basically just surviving on the back of historically low interest rates and associated free money and whose customers were spending similarly cheap money are going to struggle. The likes of the window industry are especially hard hit with increases in glass and plastic price increases.

There are tough times on the horizon and if we don’t get a mild winter like last years, many households are going to have budgets severely constrained. Last and by now ways least the decision to not increase tax free allowances is going to bit especially hard in a higher interest rate and inflation environment.

PIH - the UK is going to have a few chickens coming to roost, over the last 15 years the expansion of the welfare state has left us with huge numbers who do nothing for what they receive, in my area a young 20 something with a mental ‘elth issue gets 16k and all the extras it triggers, for those that manage to get social housing. ( not easy) there really is no incentive to work.
Then you have the distortions of in work benefits, i had tenants where one partner worked part time , couple of young kids and total income for 25 hpurs work a week was the equivalent of £42k pre tax a year.
So a 30 year old decent tradesman supplying tools and running a van if they have partner, kids , mortgage etc will be looking to charge £300 a day to make ends meet and they’ll not have much leeway in that. Really they want nearer £400.
The country has got totally out of kilter with the cost of living , tax and the value of skills. The recent run of stories in the press regarding shoplifting are in many areas not news, my local CO-OP has endless issues with theft, the day that doesn’t have a blatant theft is the rare exception. Be a ne’er do well reliant on be:efits and you can nick pretty much what you want and be unlikely to get caught so long as there is no violence.
Not forgetting the tax burden which is considerable, as a landlord i’m subject to Sec24 which effectively charges me tax on a portion of the interest payments i make, i’m not prepared to cover that cost, so it falls on my tenants, but to have enough after tax on the extra income to cover the tax on what is effectively turnover not profit means theyare all getting rent increases of £50 a month. Which benefits no one other than the exchequer.
There’s an almighty reckoning marching our way, with what is likely to be a change of government it’ll get worse in terms of taxation when labour seek to level everyone down. Lots of firms are going to go to the wall.

There are lots of theories and suggestions as to what can be done, all require financing, which in an economy that isn’t growing on the all important per capita basis means the money will most likely be borrowed. But just about all the theories and ideologies conveniently choose to ignore human nature and instead base the visions of the future in which people are happy to work as hard or harder to pay more taxes to help others and that those being helped will choose to work harder to improve their lot. Ignoring the evidence that if you give people enough for doing nothing or less than they are capble of they’ll quite happily continue to nothing or less than they are capable of and that those near the boundary will be more likely to take the easy option.
The welsh have bought in rules around 2nd homes , that mean they need to be let enough days a year to contribute to the community or you pay more council tax, which is perfectly sensible when it’s framed around the “wealthy outsider” outbidding locals for homes that are then occupied just a few months a year. But I have a relation in their 80’s whose fallen foul of the regulations because they’ve run a small holiday business from their own home , which has been their only home for nearly 40 years, and is now being charged over 10k a year in council tax, so must leave the home that represents 140 years of work over the lifetime of their and theit late partners lives, throw in the cost of selling and buying elsewhere and that’s a significant chunk of a lifetimes work. Try and get any of the politicians involved to explain why this is seen as reasonable, the silence is deafening but it plays to the less informed masses.

Artiglio - I can agree with most of your comments. I think the notion that state benefits are there solely as a safety net for desperate folk is long gone. That is not to say that there are no people is desperate need (I volunteer in a food bank so I see it first hand) but for too many it has become a lifestyle choice. My niece who works in Social Services calls these folk "The Entitled".

As a pensioner I am conscious that my main income, the state pension, is provided by an ever shrinking number of tax payers, especially with the likelihood of the triple lock continuing in the future. Conversely I have worked all my life and paid into the tax/NI system so I have to admit there is even an element of entitlement in my thinking now!

If only there were enough good (note, *good*) jobs in a modern, automating economy, to employ every one of those 'Entitled'. If there isn't, then blaming those who choose to be the ones that society doesn't so need, is pure 'on yer bike' Tebbit. UK is still an immensely prosperous country, by world standards, but is too mean to think of a way to sustain the increasing number it doesn't 'need' as labour; instead make them to blame for almost anything - not difficult to think up pretexts. UK could be far more prosperous if it could instead embrace this and other features of the modern world - but AFAIK no other country has faced up to it either, so automation is so far a worldwide force for ill, rather than a boon to mankind, and its potential for vast productivity is artificially depressed.

Fostertom, i’ve been renting property in one of the countries most “deprived” wards in the country for over 20 years, spent lots of time speaking with welfare officers, social workers, police , intervention teams. Things i’ve seen would make people weep.
There’s a section of society that has no interest in work, stuck in a generational cycle of welfare dependence and no intention of escaping it. I’ve found a baby in a cardboard box that was saturated with urine, the mother had complained that the radiator the baby was next to was leaking, it wasn’t ,the leak was the baby.The mother did’nt even get off the sofa. A child brothel run by eastern europeans ( not that it matters) just up from where i lived was raided and shut down, but no prosecutions , the children went into care and those running it allowed to leave the country. The reason for not prosecuting or publicising what had been going on , to prevent stigmatisation of immigrant communities ( so nationality does matter). Those that live on cannabis and energy drinks, more interested in getting their kids diagnosed with an issue for the extra payments and if they’re really lucky a motability car.
There are plenty of jobs out there otherwise why do we need so many migrant workers. Educational attainment is the big problem, but education not seen as an issue by sections of the community. A local primary school has welfare officers knocking on doors looking for pupils and finding no one in the house is out of bed. The school has found fining parents is the best way to improve attendance. The list is endless.
You may not like my views but there’s reason behind them.

Jeff B, it’s a complicated arena, that ignores arrangements that were perfectly acceptable for many years and then suddenly changes things. It’s going to totally change the tourist trade in many parts of wales. The original idea behind the legislation, ( to stop people buying second homes and renting them for minimal periods to be able to register for business rates that would result in a zero bill and as such the homes contributed very little to the local economy as they avoided council tax, but bought few tourists into the area) has sensible thinking behind it, but what transpired was a lazy catch all intended to raise maximum revenues. Mark Drakeford himself owns a holiday chalet ( which would be far more suited to permanent residence than my relatives holiday offering) but this is exempt as it has a restriction on occupation via planning, but no intention of reviewing such planning conditions.

The car wash analogy is a perfect example of where things have gone awry, we have endless numbers of hand car washes largely employing migrant workers, how many have planning permission and meet environmental standards. Let alone have proper records and pay VAT. But it’s an easy business based on cheap labour. But we’d theoretically be better off with automated washes that need proper investment and long term business plans and would create a few well paid jobs for those running and maintaining them. Same number of cars get washed same income, but the former has 10 plus times as many people reliant on state services. But for some reason we let the hand car washes proliferate despite the many concerns around employment practices, money laundering and tax avoidance.

Posted By: ArtiglioThere are lots of theories and suggestions as to what can be done, all require financing, which in an economy that isn’t growing on the all important per capita basis means the money will most likely be borrowed.

Or more could be raised in tax - the UK is still a relatively low-taxed country. To quote from the OBS (https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/):
"...the UK tax burden...has remained below the average across other advanced economies. In 2021...the UK’s tax-to-GDP ratio was 33.5% of GDP... 3.3% of GDP below the average of other G7 economies, and 6.4% of GDP below the average of 14 other western European countries."

That doesn't have to mean taxing 'ordinary people' more. Until recently income from corporate taxes has fallen pretty continually since the 1980s, at least in part due to cuts in corporate tax rates as part of the international race to the bottom.

It always seemed strange to me how people insist we need to import more migrant labour into a country with high unemployment. 'Work doesn't pay' is the usual excuse, I guess they're much more content to have Johnny foreigner serve their posh coffee and clean their toilets on wages you can't survive on.

Of course none of this has anything to do with the fact these people tend to vote Labour. FWIW I'd like nothing more than to see the Tories crushed into the ground, but unfortunately the alternative is equally depressing.

Posted By: djhIf you have evidence linking automation specifically to current problems

Yes indeed - in The Archers, always up with the latest - they're contemplating agricultural robots and expecting that even the very few remaining farmers and contractors who presently run farms will no longer be needed to drive around on huge tractors.

Posted By: owlmansteampunk artist

Now you're talkin' - when work isn't confused with making a crust (let robots do that, and work out how to then distribute said crusts without self-satisfied wallowing in who does and who doesn't 'deserve' any) but for fun and fulfilment.

After recent years finding it increasingly, now almost completely, impossible to find small to medium builders willing
a) to look at any scheme that comes with working drawings/spec (smells like complication)
b) to look at anything where they suspect they'll be in competition
c) to work out a binding tender price (they've let that capability lapse)
d) to sign any binding contract
e) to understand/work to drawings once on site (they've lost that skill)
there was a brief window about this time last year, when there was talk of a recession, and suddenly they were worried to fill their forward order book so were up for anything, as a) and b) above.

That anxiety evaporated after a few months (so never tested their willingness to c), d) and e)) and it was back to normal - more work offers than they could handle therefore take the ones with least control over piling on the extras, for least demanding (read shoddy) work.

Now maybe they're anxious again?

Good.

Posted By: fostertomAfter recent years finding it increasingly, now almost completely, impossible to find small to medium builders...
...That anxiety evaporated after a few months and it was back to normal
...Now maybe they're anxious again?

Many of us will no doubt be pleased if this results in some long-term stability at affordable prices. However it's perhaps more likely to be yet another cycle of boom and bust in an industry that is notoriously unstable - and consequently unattractive for anyone considering it as a career option.

Posted By: ArtiglioBeing unable to afford to live there with the council tax charges ,move they must. At which point is your home not your home?

This is not a happy scenario and cannot help but think that there is a better solution. Having an annexe is a real bonus if one needs a live in carer. Is there no scope to make the house one unit and have a lodger there are tax advantages having a lodger if that is still the case. I cant help but think there is a massive mistake somewhere with the council tax unless it is a very very big premises.