General: Labour partyâ€™s new energy plans

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- CommentAuthorminisaurus
- CommentTimeSep 25th 2022
They sound hopefull: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/24/keir-starmer-unveils-green-growth-plan-to-counter-liz-trusss-tax-cuts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Does anyone know more detail? Weâ€™ll need quite a bit of battery storage if this is going to work, I think?
- CommentAuthorSimonD
- CommentTimeSep 25th 2022
It's definitely a positive step in the right direction and probably catches the public mood right now. It'll be interesting to see the substance.

There are certainly some technical challenges to actually achieving this.

I question more whether included in this growth plan is a rounded approach to resolving many of the structural problems we have in the UK that could scupper it.

1st is education and up-skilling a workforce.
2nd is finding the necessary resources to enable the transition - with the current labour supply shortages, this will unlikely be feasible.
3rd would be to support and develop localised engineering and manufacturing infrastructure inhabited by the newly educated and up-skilled workforce
4th there's a need to look at and consider natural and material resource management and supply
5th there's energy market reform so that we don't merely end up as energy tenants etc.
- CommentAuthorWillInAberdeen
- CommentTimeSep 25th 2022 edited
"double onshore wind, triple solar and quadruple offshore wind"

It's a sign of the incredible changes of recent years in the UK renewables industry, that the Labour policy is actually not very ambitious at all - the industry already is doing more projects than that. It's easy to announce a plan for something that is happening already!
(Edit: the previous administration set out similar targets
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy/british-energy-security-strategy#renewables)

I'd like to see all the parties get more ambitious for things that are not yet happening fast enough:

- heat pumps and electric vehicles, to actually utilise the new renewable electricity and displace gas/oil imports
- grid capacity to move the new electricity around, this seems to be the main delay for many of the projects
- reliable backup power (IE some combination of nuclear, CCS, hydrogen, batteries)
-and energy efficiency of course

Here's what is already happening:

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/uk-onshore-wind-project-pipeline-increases-by-4gw-in-12-months-says-renewableuk - onshore wind is being tripled, mostly in Scotland,

https://www.renewableuk.com/news/599739/Offshore-wind-pipeline-surges-to-86-gigawatts-boosting-UKs-energy-independence.htm - eight-fold increase in offshore wind (wow)

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/meteoric_growth_in_new_solar_farm_planning_in_uk_sees_pipeline_reach_a_stag 4-fold increase in solar pv, mostly large scale solar farms
- CommentAuthordjh
- CommentTimeSep 25th 2022
I think most people here would like to see a lot more renewable generation, and also agree that there are many practical problems with doing so, as well as the obvious financial investment one. I hope somebody manages to achieve it. There was an interesting article in the ST today by Matthew Syed https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fiddling-with-tax-wont-cut-it-our-focus-must-be-energy-energy-energy-0tsqpnjwq (sorry, there's a paywall). He points out that previous periods of growth over the centuries have been strongly linked to growth in energy supplies and that that is noticeably missing from current politicians' plans.

I think EVs are an exception to the general malaise in that the plans to phase out fossil-fueled vehicles seem to be working fairly well given the need to build up charging infrastructure and also finance their purchase, as well as the continuing fairly fast product development cycles. A bit of fiddling may be all that is required. Heat pumps and energy efficiency by contrast are notorious for poorly planned and executed schemes to increase their uptake. Grid development is another area where there are competent people but also some old guard slowing things down and some poor political judgments.
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeSep 25th 2022
Posted By: SimonD1st is education and up-skilling a workforce.
Biden's 'Inflation Reduction Act' (bizarre name for
"the single largest climate investment in US history, with $369bn for climate and clean energy. It is expected to enable the US to get two-thirds of the way towards its Paris agreement commitments while reducing energy costs. It lowers health costs for millions of Americans. It seeks to tackle inflation by directly reducing costs for individuals and by reducing the deficit through closing tax loopholes and increasing tax on corporates and the wealthy.")
offers huge incentives to industry to do the green thing and the other objectives - but across the board, the money is conditional on companies committing to unprecedented apprenticeshiop schemes, as well as other in-company and in-society enlightened practices.

Labour seem slightly stunned that overnight roles have switched - they are now the party of fiscal responsibility, Tories the rash spendthrifts.

Labour also realise that now the Tories have discovered the Magic Money Tree (MMT), they can now propose big spending plans of their own without risk of being shot down, as Corbyn was by May. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which dare not speak its name amongst politicians of any colour, except as crypic initials, inches closer to mainstream.
- CommentAuthorWillInAberdeen
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022
"Modern monetary theory has been taken into a corner and beaten up."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/26/sterling-record-low-tax-cuts-investors-kwarteng-truss-ftse-stock-markets-business-live

It would be a witty comment, but this has real world consequences. Anyone with pension savings owns UK govt bonds, especially people close to or already drawing their pension, because they were supposed to be rock-steady reliable ("a government can never default on bonds in its fiat currency"). Instead, a large chunk of everyone's savings has been wiped out over the last few weeks, either directly or via their pension fund's lost ability to keep paying their pension promises.

Likewise the crash in the value of UK's "fiat currency" means that the prices of energy, food and other imported goods will inflate even faster, cutting further into people's ability to afford to live, and requiring interest rate rises which will bump up housing costs and national debt repayments.

Overall this invisible (or maybe not) damage to ordinary people seems several times worse than the visible handouts for energy price caps and tax cuts, an economic own goal for political ends.

This is exactly as was feared by "treasury orthodoxy" and by traditional economics - the BoE were printing money since 2008 but stopped this year, because they actually agree with MMT that govt should print and spend money when inflation is low, and cut back spending when inflation is high.
- CommentAuthordjh
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022
Posted By: WillInAberdeenAnyone with pension savings owns UK govt bonds, especially people close to or already drawing their pension, because they were supposed to be rock-steady reliable ("a government can never default on bonds in its fiat currency"). Instead, a large chunk of everyone's savings has been wiped out over the last few weeks, either directly or via their pension fund's lost ability to keep paying their pension promises.
I'm not sure about that. Moving into UK gilts was the traditional way when everybody was required to buy an annuity, but nowadays many people use flexible drawdown and keep their investments widely spread. I for one do not knowingly hold any bonds, although I accept there may be some in some funds/trusts.

Pension funds' ability to pay pensions has been INcreased recently, since the yield on bonds that they already hold or need to purchase has gone up. That's why the nominal CETV values of DB pensions has gone down, and the nominal CETV value doesn't matter except n exceptional circumstances.

I agree that the decline of the pound is bad news in general, and IMHO due in large part to mismanagement by the current government.
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022
Will, that 'witty comment' looks like something attached to something I'd like to read, but I couldn't find it in 3pp of that link - could you provide a pointer?
- CommentAuthorphiledge
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022 edited
Posted By: djhMoving into UK gilts was the traditional way when everybody was required to buy an annuity, but nowadays many people use flexible drawdown and keep their investments widely spread.

I would imagine that most people on DC schemes are fully managed and unaware of the state of their pension just now. Hopefully anyone on a DC scheme about to retire/draw down gets advised to work a bit longer with their fingers crossed!!
- CommentAuthorSimonD
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022
Posted By: WillInAberdeen"Modern monetary theory has been taken into a corner and beaten up."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/26/sterling-record-low-tax-cuts-investors-kwarteng-truss-ftse-stock-markets-business-live" rel="nofollow" >https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/26/sterling-record-low-tax-cuts-investors-kwarteng-truss-ftse-stock-markets-business-live

Somebody is confused. The mini bidget was not consistent with an application of MMT.
- CommentAuthorSimonD
- CommentTimeSep 26th 2022
Posted By: djhMoving into UK gilts was the traditional way when everybody was required to buy an annuity, but nowadays many people use flexible drawdown and keep their investments widely spread.

It's still standard financial advice to start tapering pension from equities to bonds and sometimes even to cash as retirement age draws closer. However, it wouldn't be good financial advice to only taper to UK gilts, you'd still want a diversified approach to the bonds purchased.
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeSep 27th 2022 edited
Posted By: WillInAberdeenIt's a sign of the incredible changes of recent years in the UK renewables industry, that the Labour policy is actually not very ambitious at all - the industry already is doing more projects than that
That, and the links given, is very succinct/definitive - thanks.

The 'but' is that the much larger 'other than electricity' uses of fossil remain relatively untouched, perhaps because they're much less soundbite-ready for politicians/media to boast/promise about, hence public awareness/demand absent so far (apart from electric cars). Hopefully, snappy ways to talk about de-fossiling steel, cement, ships and planes, let alone deep-upcycling, pollution, agriculture, ecology will emerge.
- CommentAuthorWillInAberdeen
- CommentTimeSep 28th 2022 edited
Discussion in Guardian that the Labour proposal is to increase low carbon electricity from 50-60% to 98%+ by 2030. The existing government plan is to get up to 95%. National Grid are expecting 98%. Meanwhile the SNP claims Scotland is already at 100%, though I see holes.

So there isn't actually real difference between the English parties' positions, it perhaps suits them both politically to talk up their minor differences.

Interesting links to the underpinning studies on how to get through calm/cold weeks - everyone is thinking of nuclear and some mothballed gas stations, with only very minor amounts of hydrogen and CCS and storage required/possible by 2030.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/28/will-labours-energy-plans-work

https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/uk-gas-power-phase-out/

I'm a bit puzzled by Labour's idea to launch a "British version of EDF" - not clear what it would do. There's no shortage of private money queued up to build wind and solar, capacity auctions are massively oversubscribed. So would Labour's company invest in nuclear instead? Present govt seem to be doing so, for Sizewell C. Or would they be a nationalised energy retailer, like Bulb currently is?
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeSep 28th 2022
Posted By: WillInAberdeenisn't actually real difference between the English parties' positions
Somehow Starmer said it as if he really meant it - clearly Milliband's exceptional understanding at work - as truly foundational to Labour's wider offering.

They made clear that GBE wouldn't be a retailer. I agree, what's it for? - not so much as catalyst/green bank perhaps, more so's to grap a slice of the pie for UK plc, where it's all going to foreigners at present?
- CommentAuthorPeter_in_Hungary
- CommentTimeSep 28th 2022
Posted By: WillInAberdeenI'm a bit puzzled by Labour's idea to launch a "British version of EDF" - not clear what it would do. There's no shortage of private money queued up to build wind and solar, capacity auctions are massively oversubscribed. So would Labour's company invest in nuclear instead? Present govt seem to be doing so, for Sizewell C. Or would they be a nationalised energy retailer, like Bulb currently is?

I had assumed that the labour plan of a state owned energy supplier is that it would operate as a not for profit enterprise and without shareholders (and pension funds) wanting their bit the consumer would get cheaper energy.
- CommentAuthorfostertom
- CommentTimeSep 28th 2022
He talked about Maggie squandering UK's North Sea riches, whereas Norway built a huge sovereign fund out of theirs. Maybe seeing UK wind as a similar windfall(!) resource, to be captured for UK plc.
- CommentAuthorSimonD
- CommentTimeSep 28th 2022
Posted By: WillInAberdeenI'm a bit puzzled by Labour's idea to launch a "British version of EDF" - not clear what it would do. There's no shortage of private money queued up to build wind and solar, capacity auctions are massively oversubscribed.

Posted By: fostertomThey made clear that GBE wouldn't be a retailer. I agree, what's it for?

Posted By: Peter_in_HungaryI had assumed that the labour plan of a state owned energy supplier is that it would operate as a not for profit enterprise and without shareholders (and pension funds) wanting their bit the consumer would get cheaper energy.

It's fundamentally about preventing the value extraction that's been going on for far too long. Not just monetary, but knowledge and skills etc. too.

Posted By: fostertomMaybe seeing UK wind as a similar windfall(!) resource, to be captured for UK plc.

If it is indeed structured in the correct way, it could benefit the UK in many different ways, but it would have to be beyond just wind.

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